$BTC The US and China engaged in a life-and-death negotiation in London for 48 hours, temporarily pressing the nuclear button of the trade war, but the fuse is still burning; August 10th is the life-and-death line!
Temporary painkillers:
The US loosened its grip on rare earths.
China also eased up a bit, allowing Shenzhen rare earth companies to resume exports.
The most drastic move was the tariff plunge! The US cut its punitive tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China reduced its tariffs on the US from 125% to 10%. This is definitely a significant concession from both sides!
BUT! A timed bomb hangs over us:
August 10th is the deadline! If no agreement is reached beforehand, all the lowered tariffs will “boom” back up, even higher! This is not an agreement at all; it's merely a delay before an explosion!
Surface ceasefire, secretly stabbing:
The US is being sly: The ban on chips and aircraft equipment to China remains unchanged, and it boasts about the court supporting its 34% “standard” tariff. I see this as a delaying tactic; the big stick can come down at any moment!
China is not backing down either:
Exports to the US plummeted 34.5% in May, setting a record; the trade war indeed hurts. But we have the rare earth trump card, forcing the US to come back to the negotiating table; this hand is strong!
The world is terrified:
The World Bank overnight lowered its global growth forecast for next year to a dismal 2.3%.
ECB President Lagarde shouted urgently: If this continues, the global economy will go straight to ICU!
Countries like the EU, Japan, and Mexico, especially those involved in aviation, are pleading with the US to “not open fire”! The market is truly frightened!
Experts' absurd remarks:
This is a “Syria-style ceasefire” — as fragile as a layer of paper! The deep-seated contradictions remain unresolved, entirely dependent on the leaders' moods; they could turn hostile at any moment. I completely agree; this “peace” is too unreliable!
Market hysteria:
Rare earth stocks skyrocketed, and related companies in Shenzhen are like printing machines.
The dollar fell inexplicably, exposing the market's inner fears.
American companies are split: on one hand, they shout “long live the suspension,” while secretly stockpiling goods to guard against an explosion in August! This blatantly shows that no one believes this ceasefire can last!
My ultimate judgment:
Trump's tariff cannon is already loaded, just waiting to fire on August 10th!
Beijing holds the rare earth card and will retaliate fiercely if pushed to the edge.
Are you trapped? When will you bottom out? As always, if you're confused and helpless about what to do, leave a comment. I need fans; you need references.
