On the night of June 12, 2025, Ethereum staged the most brutal long-short strangulation battle of the year. From a lightning charge at $2878 to a waterfall crash at $2742, the $136 amplitude caused $380 million in liquidations across the network, with countless investors sleepless during the rollercoaster market. Behind this seemingly random violent fluctuation lies the hidden script of the main funds' carefully laid out harvest plan. Through deep dissection of on-chain data and technical aspects, we will reveal how the main force set three traps at $2870 and deduce the life-and-death path of ETH ahead.
First, last night's horror all replayed: the massacre of three attacks and three breaks
Lightning charge and short liquidation bait
At 23:15 Beijing time, large institutional buy orders suddenly surged, causing ETH price to violently rise from $2820, reaching $2878.59, the second-highest point of the year, within 3 minutes. Bybt data shows that this charge accompanied $120 million in short liquidations, forming a positive feedback loop of 'pump - liquidation - pump again'. This sudden surge is highly deceptive, leading chasing funds to mistakenly believe a breakthrough is imminent, unaware they have stepped into the trap set by the main force.
The three attack curse at $2870
Shockingly, the price faced three precise attacks in the $2870-$2878 range:
23:22 First attack: at $2872, there were 23,000 ETH sell orders (approximately $65 million), and the price fell back to $2850
23:35 Second attack: $2870 again saw 18,000 ETH pressure, accompanied by a whale address transferring 15,000 ETH to exchanges
23:58 Three strong attacks: the main force first used 5000 ETH to sweep the market, creating a false breakthrough, then placed 40,000 ETH sell orders at $2875, forming a classic routine of 'false breakthrough, real offloading'
Waterfall crash and leverage massacre
After the third failed attack, the bulls' confidence collapsed, triggering a stampede:
00:12 Price falls below the psychological barrier of $2800, the intraday chart shows over 1000 ETH sell orders hitting the market every second
00:30 lowest dropped to $2742.09, in 24 hours the total liquidation amount across the network reached $380 million, of which 85% were long contracts
Funding rate plummeted from 0.15% (abnormally high) to -0.08%, indicating the main force has completed the long-short switch
Second, the truth behind the crash: the chain killings of three main conspiracies
On-chain evidence: Grayscale's dumping doubts
Etherscan data reveals key clues:
Between 23:10-23:20, a certain Grayscale-related address transferred 52,000 ETH (approximately $146 million) to Coinbase in three transactions
Transfer hash value 0x7a2f... shows that this address made a large outflow 48 hours before the LUNA crash in 2022
Meanwhile, the holding amount of whale addresses decreased by 127,000 ETH in 24 hours, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2024
Policy raid: ETF expectations cool down
The SEC's sudden action became a catalyst for the crash:
The BlackRock ETH ETF decision originally scheduled for June 12 was suddenly postponed, causing market expectations to reverse instantly
Institutional order book data shows ETF-related buy orders decreased by 73% within 1 hour, with the commission ratio dropping from +0.5% to -2.3%
Bloomberg cites internal sources saying the SEC has doubts about the decentralization of ETH staking and may require further compliance adjustments
Leverage trap: massacre of funding rates
The main force uses derivative rules for precise harvesting:
At the peak of $2878, the perpetual contract funding rate soared to 0.15% (normal range 0.01%-0.03%)
Exchange data shows that the long positions reached a historical peak of $41.5 billion at the high point, with the main force forcing longs through high fees
After the price fell below $2800, exchanges automatically triggered the strong liquidation mechanism for longs, forming a 'crash - liquidation - further crash' death spiral
Third, technical judgment of death sentence: triple top + divergence's double strangulation
Morphological absolute kill: triple top formation established
The daily chart shows that three attacks at $2870 failed to form a rare 'triple top' formation:
The three peaks were $2878 (June 10), $2875 (June 11), $2878 (June 12)
Formation height of $136, theoretical target of $2878-136=$2742, precisely matching last night's lowest point
Volume shows a 'right shoulder expansion' characteristic, indicating a clear intention of the main force to offload
Indicator resonance: MACD top divergence + death cross
Technical indicators issue multiple sell signals:
Daily MACD shows a top divergence at $2878 (price new high, indicator not new high)
4-hour MACD forms a death cross at 00:15, with green bars rapidly expanding
RSI plummeted from 70 (overbought) to 30 (oversold) after the crash, but no bottom divergence was seen, indicating that downward momentum is not exhausted
After breaking the key support at $2766, this position has turned into strong resistance, making recovery extremely difficult
Fourth, future life-and-death line deduction: two major scripts determine short-term fate
Short-term 48 hours: $2740 becomes the last line of defense for bulls
Bearish script (probability 65%):
If the key level of $2740 breaks with volume, the next bearish target is $2680 (2024 ascending trend line)
Rebound resistance at $2780 (5-day moving average position), unable to break will continue the downward trend
If trading volume continues to expand, it may trigger a second wave of panic selling
Reversal script (probability 35%):
Must regain $2766 (original support level) with substantial volume, and close with a positive candle on the 4-hour chart
Funding rates need to return to positive values, indicating that the bulls have regained the initiative
Only after breaking $2800 can we confirm a short-term stop in decline
Medium-term weekly alert: a dusk star may open a plunge channel
If this week's closing is below $2700, the weekly chart will form a 'dusk star' top formation
This formation has a historical win rate of 82%, with an average drop of 35%, target price $2450
The only reversal condition: weekly closing price breaks above $2878 and stabilizes above $2850
Fifth, retail investor survival iron law: emergency hedging before the CPI storm
Three iron law survival strategies
Stop-loss rule: if the price drops below $2740, immediately stop-loss, strictly prohibit catching falling knives
Case study: In April 2024, when ETH fell below $3000, those who stopped-loss lost 62% less than those who held on
Rebound short rule: if the rebound does not exceed $2780, decisively open a short position, target $2680
Position control: no more than 20% of total funds, set profit-taking at $2680, stop-loss at $2800
Position reduction survival rule: heavy holders reduce 30%-50% of their position during a rebound
Capital management: retain over 50% cash, waiting for a clear reversal signal
CPI data countdown: 10% volatility warning
This Thursday (June 13), the US CPI data will be released, with market expectations of a year-on-year increase of 3.2%
Historical data shows that within 24 hours before and after the CPI data release, the probability of ETH volatility exceeding 10% is 78%
Emergency plan:
Leverage players reduce leverage to below 2 times in advance
Spot holders set conditional orders: automatically sell 30% if it drops below $2700
Pay attention to capital flow anomalies in the 1 hour before data release
Conclusion: Seeking opportunities in the main force's hunt
Last night's ETH horror night is essentially a multiple hunt by the main force using technical formations, policy news, and leverage rules. For retail investors, the important thing is not to complain about the strange market but to establish a survival system that can cope with extreme volatility:
On-chain data is the only truth: hard data like whale transfers and ETF trends are more reliable than candlestick charts
Technical formations may be delayed but will not be absent: triple top, MACD divergence, and other classic signals must be respected
Liquidity is the lifeline: trading volume at key levels like $2740 and $2680 is the core of decision-making
When the main force set three traps at $2870, those who survived were never the bravest chasers, but rather the calmest risk managers. In the upcoming CPI data storm, stay alert but don't panic - after all, the survival rule in the crypto space has always been: survive, and then wait for the next cycle.
