Ethereum Band Projection: Short Opportunities Under Asymmetric Risk Structure

Derivatives Strategy Group | Periodic Volatility Model

3D Coordinate Positioning

Current Price Area (≈2870) has Triple Pressure Resonance:

► Weekly Liquidity Gap (2835-2890)

► CME Futures Open Interest Dense Area (Equivalent Spot 2892)

► Whale Address On-Chain Staking Release Threshold (2877)

Target Value Anchoring

■ T1: 2811

Corresponding ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Support Zone (0.0512) and Gamma Neutral Grid Center

■ T2: 2774

Derivatives Delta Exposure Imbalance Area, Spot Selling Pressure Surge Trigger Point

■ T3: 2599

May 2021 Pre-Crash High Turnover Platform, Institutional Liquidity Recovery Level

Chaos Margin Defense

◆ Hard Stop Loss: 2930

Breakout signals the failure of the descending wedge (Probability < 15%)

◆ Dynamic DCA Mechanism:

When the price reaches 2930, implement three-stage position management:

1. Close 40% of positions to lock in risk

2. Shift 30% of positions to 2900 Put Options (Hedge Upward Risk)

3. Convert the remaining 30% to Inter-Period Arbitrage (Short Current Season/Long Far Season Contracts)

Time-Space Probability Matrix

Model Estimates Current Downside Odds:

√ Probability of Reaching T1: 68%

√ Probability of Reaching T2: 42%

√ Probability of Reaching T3: 23%

√ Probability of Triggering Stop Loss: 29%

Key Monitoring Nodes

⚠️ If the 4-hour K-line entity closes below 2895, retreat procedures must be initiated

⚠️ A 200% surge in trading volume during the London morning session will strengthen trend momentum

Blindly acting alone will never bring opportunities, follow me for insights on tenfold potential coins! Top-tier primary resources! #看懂K线 #加密圆桌讨论