Bitcoin is consolidating above 100,000 USD, with market confidence coexisting with cautious sentiment.
After Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizes above 100,000 USD, the market enters a delicate phase of negotiation. Despite multiple instances of profit-taking-induced volatility, BTC continues to demonstrate strong resilience, with its market structure appearing more mature and less reactive to short-term sentiment than before.
Current volatility is at a historical low, and with the key support zone still intact, the market is beginning to ponder a key question: is this sideways movement just a 'calm period' before a new round of significant gains?
1.154 million USD: The key resistance level will determine the next movement.
The current upward target for the market is gradually focusing on the resistance zone of 1.154 million USD. If market demand remains stable and sentiment continues to be positive, Bitcoin may be preparing for a decisive breakthrough, opening up new price discovery space.
Meanwhile, despite frequent short-term fluctuations in the market, the long-term trend shows more constructive signs.
Profit-taking is increasing, but panic has not spread.
Recent data shows that long-term holders (LTH) are realizing profits of over 930 million USD daily — this figure typically appears in the later stages of a bull market and is often seen as a top indicator.
However, unlike in the past, even as profit levels continue to rise, the market has not shown panic selling or severe capital outflow. On the contrary, LTH holdings are still steadily increasing, indicating that the overall market structure is becoming more rational and mature.
The inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and the increase in institutional custody may be the core factors behind this change. These 'strong holders' are locking more BTC into long-term allocations, slowing down the liquidity of supply.
976,000 USD: Bitcoin stabilizes at a key support level.
The average cost for short-term holders (STH) is at 976,000 USD, which is a highly indicative support level in on-chain analysis. Recently, after BTC pulled back from 101,000 USD, it received strong support in this area and quickly rebounded, validating the technical and psychological significance of this cost zone.
All sub-groups within the short-term holder (STH) cohort are currently in profit, which reduces short-term selling pressure and boosts market confidence, further strengthening BTC's consolidation near 100,000 USD.
Market tension is brewing.
On-chain data shows that the current price range has gathered a large amount of BTC buying volume. This dense distribution of 'supply barriers' reflects the market's extreme sensitivity to the current price. Due to concentrated liquidity, any slight price fluctuation could trigger intense volatility beyond expectations.
However, in contrast, the options market exhibits a relatively 'calm' sentiment: both short-term and long-term at-the-money implied volatility (IV) are declining, indicating lower expectations for recent market volatility.
However, based on historical experience, the divergence between implied volatility and actual volatility often predicts an impending dramatic market move — perhaps the breakthrough is closer than most anticipate.
The structure is healthier, and a breakthrough may come naturally.
Currently, the Bitcoin price structure is showing a robust accumulation trend rather than a sharp rise driven by euphoria. This structural change, combined with sustained buying power and supply-side compression, provides a solid foundation for future price breakthroughs.
If the market continues to maintain its current momentum, breaking through 1.154 million USD may just be a matter of time. However, as volatility returns, the price path may become more intense, making risk management particularly critical.
