In the volatile markets of cryptocurrency, stocks, and futures, there is a particularly obvious phenomenon: with each round of bull and bear transitions, there is always a group of veterans who are 'washed up on the beach,' while newcomers surge in like a tide. Behind this is not a matter of luck, but a set of cruel survival rules.

Why do veterans easily 'flip over'?

  1. Being trapped by past successes
    Veterans who have experienced the glory moments of a bull market are prone to 'survivorship bias'—thinking they have mastered the truth of the market. For example, if they made a lot of money in the last bull market with a certain strategy and cling to that strategy in the next round, they could be wiped out by systemic risks when the bear market hits.

  2. Mental fatigue leads to missing new opportunities
    After several rounds of market fluctuations, old players may become numb to 'new stories.' For instance, when meme coins first became popular, they might have thought, 'Isn't this just a joke?' As a result, when they finally want to chase, the price has already soared, and they feel it's 'too expensive to enter.'

  3. Using old perspectives to view the new world
    The market is evolving, but veterans' thinking may still be stuck in the past. For example, using a certain valuation model to view meme coins in 2020 and still applying that logic in 2025 will naturally lead to a failure to understand new gameplay, even refusing to participate.

  4. Being dragged down by financial burdens
    Veterans who have experienced extreme price fluctuations may become hesitant. For instance, seeing a new project, their first reaction might be, 'Could this be a scam?' As a result, in their hesitation, the opportunity slips away.

Why can newcomers 'charge ahead'?

  1. No historical baggage, daring to charge and gamble
    When newcomers enter the market, they only focus on the hottest narratives of the moment. For example, a meme image or an airdrop announcement can make them rush into a project, while veterans are still waiting for white papers and TVL data.

  2. All in on emotional assets, playing wilder
    Meme coins, GameFi, token points... newcomers are more willing to participate in these 'emotion-driven' opportunities. For them,'Chasing rankings and minting' is more appealing than studying complex logic.

  3. Socialized actions, speed wins
    Newcomers are used to teaming up on Discord and Telegram, where information spreads quickly and decision-making chains are short. For example, when a project just launches, they can quickly form a group to rush in, while veterans are still analyzing the 'fundamentals.'

  4. Accept new narratives, don’t get tangled in the past
    Newcomers are not bound by the 'DeFi v2 logic,' directly getting hands-on with v4 contracts, even without the endorsement of centralized platforms. For them,'New things' are meant to break old rules.

Veterans who want to survive must do these three things

  1. Empty past 'successful experiences'
    The market is changing, the rules are changing, and past strategies may have become ineffective. For example, making money in the last bull market by 'holding onto assets' may require 'high-frequency trading' this time.

  2. Maintain curiosity and continue learning
    Newcomers are fierce because they absorb new information every day. If veterans stop learning, they will soon be eliminated.

  3. Adapt to the rhythm of 'cognitive reset'
    Every round of bull and bear is a 'mental upgrade.' Veterans must learn to accept new narratives quickly, just like newcomers, and even actively embrace things they 'don't understand.'

The truth of the market: keeping the mind young is essential for survival

The cruelty of the financial world lies in the fact that it does not care about your age, but whether your thinking is young. Veterans are eliminated not because they are old, but because of 'cognitive aging'; newcomers can rise not because they are young, but because of their 'active thinking.'

So, the next time you see a certain 'on-chain emperor' being washed up on the beach by newcomers, don’t rush to mock—this might just be the market reminding you: either evolve or exit.

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