After a long period of market silence, Ethereum has finally welcomed a key signal—its derivatives open interest has historically surpassed that of Bitcoin. This change is not only a victory for the digital game but also represents a subtle restructuring of the market structure.


For most investors, this point may just be a line of data on the chart, but for funds focused on trends, this could be the trumpet of the next bull market. Ethereum is quietly stepping out from the 'shadow of Bitcoin.'


Signals behind derivatives data: Market preference is shifting


According to the latest data from the derivatives market, in the past 24 hours, Ethereum's open interest has increased by 8.03%, while Bitcoin has decreased by 2.24%. In terms of trading volume, there has been a rare misalignment: ETH's transaction volume reached $109.7 billion, up 34.16%, while BTC fell to $81 billion, down over 28%.


This is not the inertia of short-term speculation, but rather an organized, anticipated, and directional accumulation behavior. Especially against the backdrop of rising ETH financing rates and surging liquidation rates, market sentiment is shifting positively. In other words, more and more funds are betting that 'the moment for ETH is coming.'


Technical indicators are releasing bullish signals, and ETF logic is becoming increasingly strong


From a chart perspective, ETH's current RSI has reached 64.06, nearing the overbought zone, indicating that market buying pressure continues to increase. On the MACD front, there is also a bullish crossover signal line about to cross upwards, combined with an increase in trading volume, which technically prepares for an upward breakout.


The starting point of this rebound can be traced back to May 7th, after the 'Pectra upgrade,' where Ethereum's leap in performance and scalability has rekindled investors' confidence in network efficiency. More critically, the narrative surrounding Ethereum's spot ETF is approaching substantial realization.


Institutions like REX Shares have quietly submitted applications for spot ETH ETFs using regulatory 'workarounds.' Although approval is still uncertain, if the market confirms the inclusion of a staking mechanism, it will fundamentally reassess the ETH asset model—investors will be able to access Ethereum's 'cash flow attributes' for the first time through ETFs.



From an on-chain perspective, Mlion.ai's recent sentiment dashboard and fund flow analysis module have shown multiple high-probability signals pointing to an enhanced institutional layout for ETH. On-chain data shows that the number of active addresses on Ethereum continues to rise, and the contract deployment volume has reached a monthly high, indicating that the ecosystem is regaining vitality.


At the same time, in Mlion.ai's AI strategy diagram, the deviation rate of ETH price has remained above the historical average threshold for three consecutive days. Coupled with the trend of on-chain fund inflows, this is expected to drive a rapid breakthrough in the short term. If the spot ETF news is ultimately confirmed, the market price model's expectations will be restructured accordingly.


At this critical moment, it is advisable for investors not only to look at prices but also to understand the strengthening logic of ETH as an 'infrastructure asset'—Ethereum is not just another cryptocurrency, but the backbone of a new generation of value internet.


Year-end market outlook: ETH may emerge as an independent market trend


Considering the current pricing methods in the derivatives market, institutional flows, the heating up of ETF topics, as well as the resonance of on-chain activity and technical indicators, the probability of ETH emerging as an independent market trend by the end of the year is rapidly increasing.


The short-term technical resistance level is in the $2880—$2950 range. Once a breakout occurs with increased volume, it will open the upward channel towards $3200. More aggressive expectations even suggest that if Ethereum establishes favorable ETF conditions before the end of the year, its market cap could challenge a recovery of over 70% from historical highs.


At this critical stage, where multiple variables intertwine, utilizing Mlion.ai's AI research reports and price prediction modules to track the intersection of spot and derivatives data will become one of the core tools for retail investors to respond to institutional waves. In a rapidly changing market, having an extra second to understand often means capturing another wave.


Final words


The market will not notify you in advance about the next big opportunity; it will only execute a price switch when you hesitate.


This time, the funds have already told us they are betting on Ethereum. Are you ready to recognize the trend and use Mlion.ai to make your judgments more logical and confident?


#ETH

Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please participate rationally and make cautious decisions based on your own risk tolerance.