2025.6.12 Same Day Short-term Strategy Direction Reference

Ethereum

Ethereum

Daytime Resistance Levels: 2810-2830-2850 - Chances in the evening: 2875-2906

Daytime Support Levels: 2750-2730-2700 - If it rises again and then falls back, chances to look at 2688-2571

Bitcoin remains the same, looking at a fluctuating market:

Resistance Levels: 109800-11W-111000-112000

Support Levels: Below 108000-107200-106500

Last night, the US market dropped as much as it rose; the upward momentum is starting to weaken. Regular operations are generally bearish for Thursday and Friday, first looking for a slight rise in the morning and then bearish. In the evening, it should be similar to last night, first rising and then falling, with the premise of watching the highs and lows of the European market to predict the US market, which will form a high-level fluctuating pattern;

Beware of uncontrollable news events, challenges are significant, and manage positions well.

The safe point for short positions in Bitcoin is that the space is small. Ethereum's position is high, but independent one-sided trends cannot be ruled out. There is not much problem in day trading short positions.

★★★★★ Interlude on Macro Expectations:

Future Focus: Third Quarter Debt Ceiling Negotiations and Federal Reserve Policy Trends.

Risks may arise in the **third quarter**, as issues with the US debt ceiling could lead to government funding shortages in August-September, or even technical default risks.

In July, especially after July 7th until mid-month, the probability of a black swan event is very high; from the perspective of monetary policy expectations or large institutional thinking, a significant correction is needed to welcome the interest rate cut expectations after August-September, creating more space and momentum for further rises.

Interest rate cuts in August-September to hedge against US debt risks.

General Expectations:

Bullish tail market in June (upward spikes more);

Market crash in July;

Bottom consolidation in August;

Market rise starts in September;

What to do?:

1. In June, find opportunities to liquidate all spot holdings (including BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, and altcoins) into oil or RMB, not to earn the last cent;

2. Start a separate account with small leverage to short in batches, e.g., Bitcoin above 110,000 (to prevent upward spikes of 5000-10,000 points hitting shorts) aiming for 20,000-30,000 points above, while other coins aim for a 50% drop but have stop-loss risks;

Set stop-loss for trades, suggest Ethereum: 10-25 units, Bitcoin: 500-1000 units; take profit near resistance and support levels dynamically.

Be sure to control position management, with large funds using 20x leverage at 10% position, and small funds using 100x leverage at 2% position;

The above is for learning and communication reference only. #btc #eth