Here is a brief forecast for the upcoming FOMC meeting (June 17–18, 2025):
📌 Main expectation:
FOMC rate: will remain in the range of 4.25–4.50% at the June 17–18 meeting — expected market consensus
🕰️ When to expect changes:
June–July: unlikely — the market assesses the probability of a decrease in June at 0%, in July <20%
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September: the main expected moment for the first decrease — probability ~60–68% .
🔍 Reasons for current caution:
Inflation: in May +0.1% month-on-month (2.4% year-on-year), slightly below forecast, but above the FOMC target and not exerting pressure
Tariff risks: tariffs remain a factor of uncertainty, keeping the FOMC in wait-and-see mode.
Labor market: strengthened, which reduces the need for an urgent rate cut
✅ What is important to monitor:
FOMC statements at Powell's press conference following the meeting.
New inflation (PCE, CPI) and employment data.
Dynamics of tariffs and trade policy, especially US–China.
📊 Summary:
— For June 17–18: the rate will not change.
— First likelihood of a decrease: in September 2025 (≈60–70% chance).
— July – August: extremely low probability of a decrease (<20%).