• XRP could hit $25 if a spot ETF is approved.

  • A 90% crash may follow the $25 peak, per analysis.

  • ETF approval odds are at 98%, up from 68% in April.

  • Declining on-chain activity signals short-term risks.

  • Ripple’s SEC lawsuit resolution may boost XRP price.

XRP Price Surge Hinges on ETF Approval

XRP price could climb to $25 if a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) gains regulatory approval, according to recent market analysis. This forecast stems from historical patterns, notably a 2017 bullish divergence that propelled XRP from $0.0055 to over $3.40, a 20-fold increase. A similar trajectory could push XRP to $25 or higher, marking a potential 1,000% rally from its current level near $2.25.

Multiple firms, including Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton, have filed for spot XRP ETFs, intensifying pressure on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The launch of XRP futures ETFs by CME Group on May 19, which saw $19 million in first-day trading volume, signals strong institutional interest and market maturity. Polymarket data shows ETF approval odds at 98%, up from 68% in April, fueling optimism for a significant price surge.

A potential ETF approval could trigger a supply squeeze, reducing available XRP tokens and driving prices higher. Institutional demand, coupled with regulatory clarity, may amplify this effect, positioning XRP for a sharp upward move.

Post-Rally Crash Looms Large

Despite the bullish outlook, a steep 90% correction could follow the $25 peak. Historical trends suggest XRP may face a bear market decline, mirroring past cycles where massive rallies preceded sharp drops. The 2017 surge, for instance, ended with significant losses after hitting its high. A $25 peak could mark the top of XRP’s 2025 bull cycle, with prices potentially falling to $2.50 or lower in a subsequent crash.

Technical indicators point to short-term vulnerabilities. XRP recently broke below a rising channel, with three consecutive daily closes signaling reduced bullish momentum. On-chain data shows a 90% drop in active addresses since March 2025, indicating waning transactional demand. These factors, combined with a potential liquidity flush, raise concerns about a near-term pullback to $1.70-$2.00 before any ETF-driven rally.

Market sentiment remains mixed. While ETF optimism drives speculative interest, a whale’s $4.4 million short position on HyperLiquid suggests bearish bets. Declining futures open interest and low trading volume further hint at cautious buyer activity, potentially exacerbating downside risks.

External catalysts, such as the resolution of Ripple’s SEC lawsuit and stablecoin regulation developments, could influence XRP’s trajectory. A favorable outcome in the SEC case, expected by mid-2025, may bolster investor confidence. Additionally, XRP’s integration into global payment systems, like ISO 20022, could enhance its long-term utility, even amidst short-term volatility.

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