I really like a saying: what you can see is what others want you to see; what you think is actually what others want you to think!

So personally, I don't really like to study news because I feel it has little meaning. As retail investors, we can't control the news or know it in advance; overly relying on news will only make us cannon fodder for others' control.

In this market, there are only two things you can refer to: candlesticks and the consensus of emotions!

Every candlestick is the result of a contest between bulls and bears. No matter how the main forces disguise themselves, candlesticks will never lie. Perhaps some news will affect the change in candlesticks during a certain phase, but when you look at it from a broader perspective, that phase is just the ripples caused by a stone in a calm lake.

Market sentiment is always a chip that the main forces need to utilize; when the market is filled with fear, it often indicates a rally is coming, and when the market is filled with FOMO, it often indicates a dump is coming. Historically, when the Fear and Greed Index is above 85, the probability of a dump is 95%; when it is below 20, the probability of a rally is 95%.

Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at a neutral to slightly high position. According to the shape of this round of Bitcoin, there shouldn't be a true dump for now. Bulls need not panic excessively, and bears don’t need to rush to enter. Be patient and wait for the index to break 80; that will be the timing for bulls to exit and bears to enter. If it directly goes down, it means this round of increase has not ended, giving us more opportunities to go long at lower prices!