The CPI data for June is about to be released. Will it lead to a rate cut as the market sentiment suggests? Personally, I am not optimistic about a rate cut in June.
In the past couple of days, there has been a flurry of positive news. Major holders of Bitcoin (MSTR.O) have continuously increased their holdings by 1,045 Bitcoins within a week. GameStop has purchased 4,710 Bitcoins since last month. Bitmain's Bitcoin production has increased by 25%, with 109 Bitcoins. The American tech company KT has increased its Bitcoin reserves by $13 million. Even the new and old leaders of South Korea are calling for a green light for stablecoin issuance. Coupled with the continuous high opening of U.S. stocks in the past few days, if Bitcoin does not surge now, then when? I believe this upward movement is primarily driven by news stimuli, and the rise of stablecoins and the crypto market has a clear purpose: to alleviate pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds. At the end of this month, $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds will mature. Trump's team is up to something. Therefore, I do not believe this upward movement belongs to a trend reversal. Whether the upcoming Sino-U.S. economic and trade negotiations will be favorable remains to be seen, and tonight's CPI data will also be a shock. A U.S. stock market pullback could lead to a wave of downward movement, which is worth paying attention to. The position of Bitcoin against the U.S. dollar is somewhat weak, but there is still strong upward potential. From a short-term operational perspective, the MACD histogram is narrowing, indicating that upward momentum is weakening and downward sentiment is growing. Focus on the support level around 1,055. Additionally, do not expect any news about a rate cut this month. Currently, Trump's focus is on California. The real trend should emerge in the second half of the year.
