SHIB Price Prediction: The Mathematical Truth and Market Reality of Burning 100 Trillion Monthly
1. Core Misunderstanding of the Destruction Mechanism
1. Destruction ≠ Disappearance
The actual destruction of SHIB refers to sending tokens to a dead address (like 0xdead)
Current annual destruction amount: only about 20 billion tokens (CoinBurnTracker data)
It should be clarified: the term “destruction” in marketing often refers to locked assets on the Shibarium chain (not permanent destruction)
2. Fatal Flaw in the Price Formula
Incorrect Model: Price ∝ (Total Supply / Destruction Amount)
Correct Model: Price ∝ (Market Demand × Sentiment Coefficient) / Circulation
Counterexample Verification:
In 2023, the SHIB destruction amount reached 41 billion tokens (a historical record), but the price fell by 62% during the same period
2. Feasibility Assessment of Burning 100 Trillion Monthly
Parameters Current Status Target (Burn 100 Trillion Monthly)
Daily Trading Volume $120 million Needs to increase to $30 billion+
Shibarium Locked TVL $3.1 million Needs to reach $10 billion level
Single Day Destruction Peak 280 million tokens (2024/3) Needs to increase 357 times
Under the current ecological scale, the probability of achieving this target is less than 0.1%
3. Three Scenarios for Price Projection Over 5 Years
Based on Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 times (variables: destruction amount / demand growth / market trend)
1. Optimistic Scenario (Probability 12%)
Actual monthly destruction reaches 1 trillion tokens (currently 100 times)
Bull market cycle continues, SHIB demand increases by 50% annually
Price after 5 years: $0.000044 ▮ Increase of 252%
2. Neutral Scenario (Probability 73%)
Average monthly destruction of 50 billion tokens (community proposal average)
Demand fluctuates with the market, annual growth rate of 8%
Price after 5 years: $0.000018 ▮ Increase of 44%
3. Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 15%)
Destruction mechanism encounters obstacles (e.g., abandoned due to high Gas fees)
Competition among MEME coins intensifies, SHIB market share shrinks
Price after 5 years: $0.000003 ▮ Decrease of 76%
The frenzy of SHIB destruction is essentially a Ponzi game in a stagnant market, where latecomers must pay a higher price to take over.
Awareness:
Satoshi designed BTC's deflation to combat inflation, not to artificially create scarcity!
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