Summarize the script of Pumpfun's coin issuance

Narrative chain: SOL ETF approved → SOL rises → meme market restarts → Pumpfun coin issuance → Great retreat

Logic and clues: The rumor of Pumpfun's coin issuance has been around for a long time. Recently, there have been rumors of major exchanges changing Pump ticker and financing. Although Pump itself is still half-hiding, it is obvious that its ambition to issue coins can no longer be hidden.

Rumor has it that Pump is seeking $4 billion FDV to raise $1 billion.

Reasoning: If the rumor is true, then the purpose of issuing coins is to exit for itself and investors, with investors accounting for 25%, the team accounting for 10%, and airdrops accounting for 10%, plus liquidity and market making and other messy marketing expenses of 10%. Assuming that 10% of these tokens will seek to be realized at the opening, then the opening market needs to bear the selling pressure of $400M–$470M.

If the initial circulation is 15% (10% is not enough for the project party and VC to cash out, and 20% will cause dissatisfaction in the community, so let's count it as 15%), then in the case of a VC round of 4 billion FDV, the amount of funds needed to pull the price to 8 billion (market value ranking is roughly equivalent to Sui, Arbitrum, Hyperliquid) is about 500M-700M. So under the selling pressure + pulling the price to 8 billion US dollars, it takes about 1B US dollars.

So what is the current market purchasing power?

Binance accounts for about 59% of the total stablecoins in the entire crypto cex market, 30B USD, about 10%-15% is in "hot wallet status", hot money that can be opened at any time, about $3B-$4B, other exchanges 2B, and the capacity of dex to handle about 0.5B, a total of $5.8B-$9B, of which the liquidity of mainstream coins accounts for 70%-80%, so the entire market is left for other altcoins to buy about 1-2B.

Source: https://t.co/EmV1DIRZT4

That is to say, if Pumpfun issues a coin and the VC round just breaks even, Pumpfun can occupy half of the altcoin buying in the entire market. Pumpfun currently has more than 1 million active wallets, about 300,000-400,000 real active users, and about 50,000-70,000 daily active users. Considering the growth after the coin issuance, including the existing users of cex, we can count it as 500,000 users. Reference data: https://t.co/SUqNIAjEFE

According to 4 billion fdv, each user needs to pay $800 to buy pump tokens, and 8 billion fdv, it is $1,600.But how much is the asset of a single user on Solana? According to statistics, the median consumption power of Solana active users is about $100-$300/person, and the top 10% of users have a single-coin transaction capacity of more than $1,000. According to previous statistics by @Adam_Tehc, only the top 3% of players have earned more than $1,000.

Source: https://t.co/4QAwxKKRGy

https://t.co/SB2XjoSoyQ

If Pump goes directly to Binance, here are two data. One is based on Binance alpha. The latest published average transaction volume of alpha users is $52,000. Then it is estimated that the user single-coin transaction volume on Binance spot+alpha is about $5K-$10K/day.

The other is based on Binance's global registration volume, which is about 270M, MAU is 100M, and the daily transaction volume is 15-30B, so the transaction volume per user is $300.

Let's calculate how much money Pumpfun currently has. According to the Defilama dashboard, the historical income is 3.3M SOL, about 747M, accounting for 0.5% of the total supply of Solana and 0.6% of the circulation. There are still 150M left on the chain, that is, 650M has been cashed out, plus 1B given by VC (assuming half of it has been received), the disposable cash on hand is about 1B.

If we follow the BNB model, if 20% of the income is used to buy back and pull the market, the daily trading volume of DEX is about 770KSOL (≈$120M USD/day)

Annual transaction fees/income: about 2.85M – 2.95M SOL/year (≈$450M–$460M USD/year)

Converted to US dollars (at the current price of about $155/SOL): annual income ≈ $450M.

Take 20% for buyback: ≈ 90M annual buyback volume

Source: https://t.co/SUqNIAjEFE

Not bad, right? But first of all, consider whether Pumpfun can maintain its leading position and continue to print money for a long time.

In addition, if Pumpfun raises VC rounds according to 4 billion FDV, and the project party, VC and airdrop party do not ship, and still use the funds in hand to pull the market, and the liquidity in the market is confident and willing to take it, then will it exceed Solana's current market value ($87B)?

As a king-level project, Pump's coin issuance really reminds me of the fear of being dominated by fomo when @BoredApeYC issued Monkey Land.