Summarize the Great Retreat Script of Pumpfun
Narrative Chain: SOL ETF Approval → SOL Rises → Meme Market Reboots → https://t.co/2KUONsaGMB Token Launch → Great Retreat
Logic and Clues:
Although the rumor of Pumpfun's token launch has been around for a long time, recent rumors from major exchanges about changing the Pump ticker and financing suggest that while Pump is still being coy, the ambition to launch a token can no longer be hidden.
Rumor 1: Pump is seeking $4 billion FDV to raise $1 billion.
Inference: If the rumor is true, then the purpose of launching the token is to allow both itself and investors to exit. Investors hold 25%, the team holds 10%, airdrops account for 10%, plus liquidity, market making, and other miscellaneous marketing expenses account for 10%. Assuming 10% of these tokens will seek to liquidate at the opening, then the sell pressure the market needs to absorb at launch is $400M–$470M.
Assuming everyone has diamond hands, with an initial circulation of 15% (10% is not enough for the project and VC to cash out, 20% would cause community dissatisfaction, so let's assume 15%), under the circumstance of $4 billion FDV in the VC round, to pump it to $8 billion (market cap ranking roughly equivalent to Sui and Arbitrum, Hyperliquid) requires approximately $500M – $700M in funds.
So to bear the sell pressure + pump it to $8 billion, it needs approximately close to $1B.
So how is the current market purchasing power?
Binance accounts for about 59% of the total stablecoin volume in the overall crypto CEX market, $30B, with about 10%–15% being in a 'hot wallet state', meaning hot money that can be deployed at any time, roughly around $3B–$4B, other exchanges around $2B, with a DEX absorption capacity of about $0.5B, totaling $5.8B–$9B, of which liquidity for mainstream coins accounts for 70%-80%, so the entire market leaves about $1B–$2B for other altcoin buying.
Source: https://t.co/UABF5hHDYw
In other words, if Pumpfun launches a token and the VC round just breaks even, Pumpfun could capture half of the market for altcoin purchases.
Pumpfun currently has over 1 million active wallets, with about 300,000–400,000 real active users, daily active users around 50,000–70,000. Considering growth after the token launch, including existing users on CEX, we can estimate around 500,000 users.
Reference Data: https://t.co/SUqNIAjEFE
According to $4 billion FDV, each user needs to spend $800 to purchase Pump tokens, and for $8 billion FDV, it would be $1600.
But how much assets does a single user on Solana have? According to statistics, the median spending capacity of active users on Solana is around $100–$300 per person, with the top 10% of users having a single coin trading capability exceeding $1,000, and according to a previous article by @Foresight_News, only the top 3% of players earned over $1,000.
Source: https://t.co/Cpk6NTIbPy
https://t.co/SB2XjoSoyQ
If Pump goes directly to Binance, there are two data points. One is based on Binance Alpha, the latest reported average trading volume of Alpha users is $52,000, so the estimated trading volume per user on Binance Spot + Alpha is around $5K–$10K per day. The other is based on Binance's global registration volume, which is about 270M, with MAU at 100M, and daily trading volume of $15B–$30B, so the trading volume per user is around $300.
Let's also calculate how much money Pumpfun currently has. According to the Defilama dashboard, historical revenue is 3.3M SOL, roughly around $747M, accounting for 0.5% of the total supply of Solana, 0.6% of the circulating supply, with another 150M remaining on-chain, meaning $650M has already been cashed out. So why launch a token? Firstly, although growth is slowing, daily fees are still considerable, and there are many competitors, but they can almost be ignored. Launching a token means the project team can cash out more money.
Source: https://t.co/SUqNIAjEFE
As a top-tier project, Pump launching a token really reminds me of the fear of being dominated by @BoredApeYC monkeys.
