A seasoned player focused on contract trading reveals high win-rate methods for swing contracts in the cryptocurrency market:
I. Trend is King, Go with the Flow
． Trend Judgment: Use trend lines and moving average systems to determine the overall direction of the market. Based on the market trend, only trade in alignment with the trend: go long in an uptrend, short in a downtrend. . Key Support/Resistance Levels: Use historical trading density areas, Bollinger Bands, and chip distribution tools to locate support and resistance levels, providing a basis for buy and sell decisions.
． Volume-Price Synchronization: When the price breaks through a key resistance level, pay attention to whether the trading volume increases to confirm the effectiveness of the breakout, avoiding false breakouts.
II. Technical Indicator Combination
. MA5/MA20 Moving Average Crossover: Short-term moving average crossovers can be used to determine changes in short-term trends.
. MACD: Observe the contraction or expansion of the MACD histogram to capture potential reversal signals.
. RSI and KDJ: The RSI indicator can help determine overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 indicates the market is overbought, which may be a time to take profits; below 30 indicates oversold, which may be an opportunity to buy the dip. Combine with KDJ golden/death crosses for further signal validation.
. Bollinger Bands and ATR: When the Bollinger Bands narrow, it indicates that the market may experience a trend change. Combine with ATR to set dynamic take profit and stop loss, adapting to market volatility.
III. Three Iron Rules of Trading
. Stop Loss: Each loss should not exceed 3% of the principal. When the price breaks a key support level, close the position immediately to avoid further losses. ◇ Dynamic Take Profit: Once profits exceed 15%, activate trailing take profit to ensure the breakeven line moves up with profits, ensuring that gains won't be given back.
◇ Position Control: Control the position of a single cryptocurrency to within 20% and do not exceed 50% of the total position when establishing a position for the first time, ensuring that a single failed trade does not significantly impact overall funds.
IV. Three Key Elements for Asset Selection
． Liquidity: Choose cryptocurrencies with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $100 million to avoid slippage caused by insufficient liquidity. · Volatility: Cryptocurrencies with an amplitude rate greater than 8% typically have high volatility, suitable for swing trading.
◇ Event-Driven: Pay attention to significant events related to cryptocurrencies, such as mainnet launches, halving, collaborations, etc., as these events may trigger significant price fluctuations.
V. Time Cycle Strategy
. Intraday Swing: Use 15-minute candlesticks as the main analysis tool, combined with 1-hour trends to assess short-term fluctuations. Positions should not exceed 6 hours, focusing on short-term opportunities.
． Overnight Swing: An operational strategy based on the 4-hour level, with a holding period of 1 to 3 days, filtering trading signals according to the weekly trend.
. Special Time Period: Pay special attention to the U.S. market opening period (Beijing time 20:30-22:00), as this period tends to have high volatility and usually presents more opportunities. $BTC #以太坊生态回暖
