Last night, Bitcoin accelerated upward, breaking away from the 30-day moving average pressure, surging to 110,000. ETH and the DeFi sector both performed well.
Why did Bitcoin surge?
After stabilizing at 105,000 yesterday noon, it surged for 13 hours in the afternoon until this morning, breaking the 110,000 mark, reaching a high of 110,650, just 1500 points away from the previous high, then retreated downwards, currently above 109, with a 1500-point pullback, still in oscillation adjustment.
Bitcoin has surged for 13 hours straight to break the 110,000 mark again. It seems that there are suddenly all favorable factors, including:
1) The three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded to new highs post tariff wars;
2) Trump and Musk's relationship has eased;
3) Progress in U.S.-China-London talks;
4) Circle's stock price hit a new high, triggering a cryptocurrency boom in U.S. stocks;
5) The negative correlation indices of U.S. bonds, the dollar, and gold are falling.
Currently, short-selling risks are high, only 2000 points away from the previous high, but the probability of directly hitting 120,000-150,000 is low, influenced by U.S. stocks, possibly extending the right shoulder rebound; the short-term breakout of the previous high is limited.
The market is extreme, with bulls extremely bullish and bears extremely bearish. Such a trend leads to frequent liquidations for contract traders, while spot investors are easily left out. Frequent buying and selling, chasing highs and cutting losses, the current market does not behave according to common logic and is hard to predict. For spot trading, it is advised to buy low and sell high, with fewer complex plans.
BTC
Bitcoin has broken through the downward trend line, making it difficult to directly drop sharply in the short term; it may form a double top correction, suggesting to take profits and exit from long positions.
Steady strategy: wait for false breakouts (breaking previous highs and then falling) to confirm the downturn, then short with low leverage for a long time; if it regains the previous high, cut losses. Note: Be cautious before CPI data is released; I will update promptly.
106500-106800 used to be a resistance, now turning into potential support, 105300 is the key starting point for the rise and also the point where the bullish structure could break; pay attention to the support here. As long as the price remains above this level, there are still opportunities for an increase!
ETH
Bitcoin rises, Ethereum follows suit; when it falls, it falls more. Now Bitcoin has entered a critical zone, and it is better to focus on Ethereum's trend. If Bitcoin maintains above 1.07 million, Ethereum may break 2800 and aim for 3000.
Yesterday I mentioned that Ethereum is accumulating; I took a long position, but shorting is not suitable because it could suddenly spike, so it is only suitable for going long; there is still significant room to reach 3000. Once Bitcoin hits a new high, 3000 will not be an issue; it only requires two large bullish candles from this position.
2545/2590 has high cost-effectiveness for going long, 2655 can be a short-term rebound, after breaking 2720, expect targets of 2850-2900, consider short positions for hedging once achieved.
Altcoin
Altcoins are ushering in a wave of general increase, but the rise is still far below expectations. Today's rebound sees ETH and DeFi performing brightly, and the market has begun to pay attention to ETH and DEFI again.
The altcoins I recommended are rising in sync with the market:
PEPE rose by 8.96%, NEIRO by 15.04%, WIF by 16.55%, AIXBT by 7.5%, VIRTUAL by 8.82%. I have been emphasizing going long on MKR and ENA, and they are also doing well. No matter which altcoin was purchased, considerable profits were gained, which compensates for some of their losses.
I firmly believe in ETH and its ecosystem (UNI, MKR, ENA, etc.) for the following reasons:
1. ETH is undervalued, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is expected to rebound in a bull market.
2. Cryptocurrency policies are easing, and DeFi projects with real income, users, and products will be the first to benefit from traditional capital inflow.
3. Wall Street capital is shifting from BTC to ETH for accumulation, and the scale of cryptocurrency investment is not inferior to AI narratives.
4. The SEC chairman's positive attitude towards DeFi last night is favorable for the ETH ecosystem.
In the second half of the year, the market will focus on stablecoin tracks and DeFi; ETH, AAVE, MKR, SSV, UNI, etc. will lead the way, especially AAVE/ETH and MKR/BTC showing strong performance. Do not short the ETH ecosystem.
On-chain
GASS surged by 15 times
The on-chain trend still belongs to memecoins. The ETH on-chain washout a few days ago has eliminated many players, entering a phase of distinguishing the real from the fake. The best profit strategy is not to frequently change positions but to focus on chips and deeply cultivate a representative target.
$MOMO
Suspected to be a conspiracy group operation, launching multiple similarly named MEMEs in the short term to filter high-control projects for promotion and seize the USD1 market heat.
$EGL1
Quickly broke through a market capitalization of 100 million, with huge potential, recommended for accumulation. $EGL1 performs strongly in the USD1 ecosystem, leading in trading volume in the Fourmeme trading competition, suitable for large position operations, and may have favorable developments in the future, worth paying attention to.