After Bitcoin stabilized above 105 yesterday afternoon, it began to gradually rise, reaching 1106500 this morning, just 1500 points away from the previous high, which is a matter of a needle's point. It subsequently pulled back and is currently above 109, having retraced 1500 points and is still oscillating.
From 4:30 PM yesterday to 5:30 AM today, Bitcoin surged for 13 consecutive hours, breaking through the 110,000 mark again. It seems that good news is coming one after another. Let's summarize:
1. Continuing last Friday's rebound in U.S. stocks, all three major indices have rebounded to new highs since the trade war.
2. The relationships between these two major crypto supporters have eased.
3. Progress has been made in the China-US-London talks.
4. The first stock of stablecoins, Circle, continues to set new highs, triggering FOMO in U.S. stocks related to crypto.
5. The three major negatively correlated indices of U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, and gold are all falling. At this critical moment, calling for shorts may not seem very wise, after all, it's only 2000 points away from the previous high.
So, does this mean we are heading straight to the stars and the sea? Actually, not necessarily. Bitcoin's movement has always been relatively orderly and is greatly influenced by U.S. stocks. If U.S. stocks do not achieve a new high, there is no need for Bitcoin to break through so early. Even if it breaks the previous high, it might just be slightly higher, like 111980, and the likelihood of it surging directly to 120,000, 130,000, or 150,000 is very low. From a structural perspective, it still appears to be a continuation of the right shoulder's rebound.
BTC
Now that the Bitcoin price has broken through the downward trend line, according to this trend, it is unlikely to drop significantly. Bitcoin is likely to double-top and pull back, so it's better to part ways with long positions! If you are seeking stability, I think it is safer to wait for a false breakout before going short. This means waiting for Bitcoin to break through the previous high, then fall back below it, forming a false breakout, which is a bearish signal. At that point, going short with low leverage for the long term is a safer choice, as the potential for a significant pullback is high. If Bitcoin regains the previous high, then cut losses. (Be cautious in opening positions before CPI data; Sweet Dream will update the data in a timely manner.)
106500-106800 used to be resistance, but now it may become support. It is a good point to rebound here. 105300 is a phase starting point and also a small-level bullish structure destruction point; pay attention to support at this level. Prices above this level still have the opportunity to rise!
Ethereum
When Bitcoin rises, Ethereum also rises, and when it falls, it falls more. Now that Bitcoin is at a critical point, it is more appropriate for everyone to focus on Ethereum, which may aim to break through 2800 and target 3000. The premise is that Bitcoin must maintain above 107 without dropping.
Yesterday, Sweet Dream also mentioned in the article that Ethereum is currently accumulating, and I took a long position. However, shorting is not suitable because it may suddenly spike, so it is only suitable to go long. There's still considerable space to reach 3000; once Bitcoin hits a new high, 3000 is not a problem. From this position, it only takes two strong upward candles.
The cost-performance ratio for going long at 2545/2590 is quite good. In the short term, at 2655, there should be a rebound opportunity here. If it breaks through the long-pressing position at 2720, we can expect new targets. I will place a short position to hedge spot at 2850-2900. If it reaches, I will act; if not, I won't.
Altcoins
Altcoins are experiencing a wave of general increases, but the growth rate is still far below expectations. Today's rebound has seen ETH DeFi perform brilliantly, with COMP/AAVE/UNI/MKR/LDO all seeing increases of over 15%, and the market has started to refocus on ETH and DEFI.
Sweet Dream has been emphasizing going long on MKR and ENA recently, hoping these two trades have been seen by my fans to compensate for some of their losses.
(1) MKR perfectly reached the third target, making a profit of 251.26%.
(2) ENA has currently reached the second target, and profits can be taken in batches to reach the third target.
Sweet Dream is currently confident about ETH and the ecosystem UNI, MKR, ENA for the following reasons:
First, Ethereum is undervalued, and the bull market is looking at a rebound in the BTC exchange rate.
Second, the crypto policy has relaxed, and projects with real income, users, and products will be the first to benefit from traditional capital inflows.
Third, Wall Street funds have previously gone into Bitcoin, and recently have been flowing into Ethereum to build positions. Moreover, Wall Street's overall investment in crypto is not less than in AI narratives, so do not short the Ethereum ecosystem.
