The #ФРС US meeting will take place on June 18 — the market is almost certain that the rate will not be touched.
The probability of keeping it at 5.25–5.50% is estimated at 99.9%.
Bitcoin is holding above $108,000, but bearish signals are appearing on the chart.
The rate will not be lowered: inflation and employment hinder the Fed from easing policy
Until recently, the market expected the Fed to start lowering rates by summer. However, fresh data on employment and inflation have cooled these expectations. Rising wages, high employment, and stable consumer prices are keeping the regulator from easing.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged at the June 18 meeting is 99.9%. The option of a 25 basis point cut is nearly excluded. Expectations for July have also decreased: the chance of a cut has fallen to 14.5%, although it was much higher in May.
Trump demands aggressive cuts, and the ECB has already taken a step
Donald Trump is once again criticizing the Fed. He publicly stated that the rate needs to be urgently lowered by 100 basis points, calling it 'rocket fuel' for the economy. He also hinted that he might replace Jerome Powell with Kevin Warsh, a former monetary policy advisor.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has already moved to lower rates: on June 6, it cut the rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. Pressure on the Fed is increasing, but its representatives remain cautious for now. The main question is how tariffs and inflation will affect the coming quarters.
Bitcoin is holding up, but the signals are alarming
The cryptocurrency market is currently remaining calm. Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, showing a 2% increase over the day. The total market capitalization is $3.38 trillion. Participants are gradually moving funds from the dollar and gold into riskier assets, including cryptocurrency.
According to Sergey Gorev from Youhodler, this rotation helps $BTC remain at high levels. But he warns: a 'head and shoulders' pattern is forming on the chart — a classic signal of a downward reversal. If the pattern confirms, the price could drop to $92,000.
What’s next?
On June 18, the Fed is unlikely to surprise the market: the base rate is likely to remain unchanged. But investor attention will be focused on the rhetoric — how exactly the regulator explains its decision and what to expect in July.
As pressure from politicians and external regulators intensifies, the Fed maintains a cautious position. The crypto market is balancing between hope for liquidity inflow and fear of a technical correction.
