Early in the morning, I opened the exchange, and the prices were rising rapidly. Many people, like me, are probably wondering: what happened? Who ignited this wave of market activity? Don’t worry, let’s discuss it slowly. This recent surge was actually driven by three 'push factors' working together to elevate Bitcoin.
First, strong inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have injected new vitality into the market.
Secondly, investor expectations for a rate cut in September have increased, which is usually beneficial for high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Finally, the U.S. stock market is showing green across the board before the opening, and Bitcoin is 'having a good time with its big brother.'
To put it simply — the U.S. stock market has risen, and the cryptocurrency market is bouncing along.
The strong rebound of Bitcoin has been boosted by the U.S. stock market reaching historical highs. The S&P 500 index has achieved its 34th historical high this year, and today the S&P 500 is performing well before the market opens, with overall positive sentiment in the U.S. stock market. Don’t forget, although Bitcoin seems like an 'island in the crypto world,' it has long been tied to traditional finance. Its current trend is increasingly correlated with the U.S. stock market.
Especially at a time when everyone is watching the Federal Reserve's actions, as soon as there is any hint of 'rate cut expectations' or 'economic soft landing' news, market risk appetite will rise, and Bitcoin will move accordingly.
You might be wondering: is this a short-term sentiment or is there real fundamental support? The answer is: both. The sentiment is temporary, but the direction of funds is gradually becoming clearer.
Next, we can focus on three directions:
1. Can ETFs continue to attract capital?
2. Will the Federal Reserve really start easing?
3. Will more listed companies boldly enter the market?
Key reminder: This week, the China-U.S. trade negotiations carry the highest weight, and their progress may indirectly impact the cryptocurrency market through macroeconomic conditions; CPI data and U.S. Treasury auctions are directly related to the Federal Reserve's policy path, and need close attention.
The recent cryptocurrency market situation is already very different from before. The participants have changed, and the gameplay has upgraded — becoming more complex and brutal. If before, it felt like someone was manipulating the market, the new players now are simply ruthless, giving no chance for retail investors to breathe.
Currently, this market environment is actually very unfriendly to retail investors in the spot market. How to put it? The market manipulators are ruthless — as soon as they see everyone chasing to buy, they push the price down, making you lose money as soon as you buy; but if no one is buying, they will slowly grind it up, so by the time you realize what's happening, there are no cheap chips left to pick up.
In a nutshell, making money in the spot market should not follow the crowd; once most people are doing the same thing, it is essentially a signal to go the opposite way.
The current trend is similar to the classic 'market maker control' in the stock market: there is a trend, but no comfortable entry point is given. If you plan to enter around $100,000, you must be mentally prepared to be 'trapped.' In the stock market, this is called 'buying into a trap' — knowing that there might be a short-term drop, but in order not to miss out, you still have to get in first and then consider increasing your position later.