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As early as May 26, I mentioned that regardless of how much it rises, BTC will have at least one significant correction, at least more than 10,000 points (this marks the beginning of BTC's pullback), followed by a period of consolidation and a pullback position near $100,000. However, this major adjustment is a second opportunity to enter after missing the first chance. I have emphasized this point many times; anyone who has been following me for a long time knows that a few days ago BTC pulled back to around $100,000, and today it has risen to around $110,000. This wave of market movement seems to confirm my judgment; the main uncertainty now is whether it will reverse; personally, I still lean towards a rebound.
Another viewpoint that will gradually be verified over time is that this round of the bull market is not about buying anything that can rise; rather, it’s about selecting those with market makers and holding onto them—that's the hard truth. The era of blindly buying is over; filtering for relatively reliable coins and recommending them to my community friends, I will do my best to help everyone achieve good results.
The recent cryptocurrency market is already very different from before.
The participants have changed, and the gameplay has upgraded—becoming more complex and brutal. If it used to be that someone was manipulating the market, the new players now are downright ruthless, leaving retail investors no breathing room. Currently, this market situation is actually very unfriendly to spot retail investors. How to put it? The manipulators are quite harsh—once they see everyone rushing to buy, they push the price down, causing you to lose as soon as you buy; but if no one is buying, they slowly grind the price up, so that by the time you realize it, there are no cheap chips left to pick up.
In a word, making money in the spot market cannot follow the trend. Once most people are doing the same thing, it’s basically a signal to do the opposite.
The current trend is actually like the classic 'whales controlling the market' in the stock market: the trend exists, but there are no comfortable entry points. If you plan to enter around $100,000, you need to mentally prepare for the possibility of being 'trapped'. In the stock market, this is called 'buying into a trap'—knowing that there might be a short-term decline, but in order not to miss out, you still have to get in first and then consider adding positions later.
Why do even seasoned players 'buy into a trap'? Because no one can accurately predict the market. Experience tells us that many times you look at it thinking 'it hasn’t hit bottom yet', but once it becomes clear, the opportunity might be gone. So the strategy at this point is: manage your position well, enter in batches, and keep some bullets ready.
Last week I said the short-selling opportunity had arrived, but now it's almost time to give up that thinking. BTC remains generally strong, and the trend is likely to remain volatile with little chance of a sharp correction. If something sudden and negative happens (like policy changes), the next key support is $97,000, which also happens to be the common technical analysis 0.382 retracement level. If it reaches this level, I personally suggest those who are bullish can start to build a position. As for deeper corrections, such as to the 0.5 retracement level, currently it seems unlikely. As for ETH, it is still very strong; it hasn't followed BTC down, indicating that funds are supporting it. If you want to short, wait for a clear signal, such as a valid breakdown of the range; otherwise, acting rashly can easily lead to losses. Other altcoins require patience; opportunities will always come, so wait for reasonable low points before considering spot positioning!
The next two weeks will see a series of macroeconomic events:
This Wednesday's CPI data and Thursday's PPI data are crucial—since they are the last two inflation reports before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (the first in two months). The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate decision, but more importantly, its assessment of the U.S. economy, inflation, and medium to short-term monetary policy.
Another potential focal point for volatility is Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction. This event may seem unrelated, but in the context of a continuing decline in the bond market, it could trigger significant fluctuations. Looking back at the last U.S. Treasury auction: weak demand led to a sharp rise in yields, causing a sudden plunge in the stock market, and this trend also transmitted to Bitcoin’s intraday price.
Finally, attention should be paid to the China-U.S. trade negotiations—both parties will engage in a new round of discussions in London today. If progress is limited, it may exacerbate short-term selling pressure (especially since the weekend market rise has partially priced in today's positive expectations). If positive signals about a trade agreement emerge, it would benefit U.S. stocks and the dollar.