1-day BTC trade setup, based on 📈 Technical Snapshot
RSI
1‑hr RSI ≈ 74 (short-term overbought)
6‑hr and 12‑hr RSI nearing neutral–lower end (mid-term pullback possible)
MACD
Daily MACD shows bearish crossover; histogram remains negative, signaling weakening momentum
Bollinger Bands
Daily: “Three‑Pushes‑to‑a‑High” pattern at upper band—typical topping formation
30‑min: Bands compressed between ~$104.2K–105.8K; expansion imminent
Volume
Lower than monthly average; signs of fading buying interest
Candlestick patterns
Rejection wicks from recent highs (~112K), forming lower highs
Support & Resistance
Resistance: ~110.3–112 K
Support: $105K (psychological + 0.236 Fib ~103.1K) and next layer at ~$102.9K–104K cluster
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Setup Scenarios
🔻 Short Bias (favored)
Trigger: Failure to sustain above $110.3K, bearish candlestick + MACD cross.
Entry: Short at 110,000–110,300.
Stop‑Loss: Above recent swing high at 112,000 → ~112,200 (2% risk).
Targets:
T1: 105,000 (4.5% move)
T2: 103,000 (6.5% move)
**R/R Ratio:**
To T1: ~2.25:1
To T2: ~3.25:1
🔺 Alternative Long
Trigger: Bounce off 105K zone with RSI cooling and supportive candlestick.
Entry: Long at 105,200–105,500.
Stop‑Loss: Below key support ~104,800.
Targets:
T1: 108,000
T2: 110,300
**R/R Ratio:**
To T1: ~2.0:1
To T2: ~3.0:1
Given current overbought signals and resistance rejection, the short setup is statistically more likely to play out today.
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🔍 Sentiment & Macro Context
Market sentiment is cautious-to-neutral: cooling after near-ATHs (~112K); accumulation continues off-exchange, but short-term fatigue sets in
Macro catalysts:
The U.S. CPI release tomorrow (June 11) may spike volatility
Elevated bond yields / inflation data have pressured BTC recently
Institutional inflows and ETF activity remain healthy, though ETF/halving euphoria is subdued
📌 Execution Tips
Use tight position sizing—BTC is prone to 2–4% intraday swings.
