1. Technical decoding: the conspiracy of the main capital
Last week, the 50-day moving average (100,000) and the 120-day moving average "golden cross" that was accurately predicted was officially formed, which means that the 6-month medium-term rising channel is completely opened. However, historical rules show that before each breakthrough of the key psychological barrier, the main funds will create a "short trap" - by inserting a pin to probe the 50-day moving average to trigger panic selling and complete the last chip cleanup. Currently, BTC has reached the 110,000 pressure level and is expected to return to the 100,000 integer mark this week, which is exactly the "bloody chips" collection area preset by the institution.
2. On-chain nuclear bomb: Institutions are quietly buying
The BTC balance on exchanges continues to drop to a historic low of 1.6 million, and the Texas Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act officially came into effect today, marking that the third largest state in the United States will join the "Bitcoin sovereignty" camp. It is worth noting that the bill requires that reserve assets must be stored in physically isolated "cold storage" and held for at least 5 years, which is equivalent to withdrawing tens of billions of dollars worth of liquidity from the market. At the same time, listed companies such as MicroStrategy are increasing their holdings at an average rate of 2,000 coins per day. This "open-card grabbing" trend is rewriting the pricing logic of traditional finance.
3. Operation Guide: Don’t Get Left Off the Wealth Train
Core strategy: Hold BTC firmly, and increase your position in batches every time it drops by 5%. If you have already made a swing trade, be sure to buy it back at around 100,000 - current options market data shows that the open interest of 110,000 to 120,000 call options has surged by 300%, and the main funds are planning for the next round of surge.
Risk warning: The Trump administration's "Beautiful Big Bill" revision has triggered infighting in the Republican Party. Coupled with the risk of a valuation bubble burst in US tech stocks, altcoins may repeat the "waterfall decline" in August 2024. At this moment, it is important to remember: in the cryptocurrency world, 80% of wealth is concentrated in 20% of the time, and now is the golden moment to hold on to BTC.
