#USChinaTradeTalks

🗓 Date: June 9–10, 2025 – London

High-level officials from the United States and China met in London on June 9 to extend trade talks into a second day, aiming to stabilize a fragile truce in their ongoing tariff battle .

🔍 What’s on the table?

• Rare-earth minerals are a top priority. The U.S. is pushing for expanded export licenses for critical components vital to industries like auto manufacturing and defense .

• Export controls: Beijing has granted some licenses for rare-earth metals, while the U.S. is reportedly considering easing semiconductor export restrictions to China .

📉 Market & economic context

• The U.S.–China trade war has significantly impacted global supply chains. May saw U.S.-bound Chinese exports plunge ~35% year-on-year—the sharpest drop since early 2020—highlighting mutual economic pressures .

• Markets reacted positively: tech stocks (e.g. Nvidia, AMD) rallied in response to seemingly constructive licensing moves, Treasury yields eased, and the dollar softened .

🗣 Political framing

• The momentum follows a strategic call between Presidents Trump and Xi, which set the stage for these London talks .

• Economists highlight that while the U.S. struggles with supply chain dependencies (rare earths, electronics), China’s leverage via resource exports adds balance to the negotiations .

📝 Likely outcomes

• Expect short-term, tactical wins: increased rare-earth trade and reciprocal easing on semiconductors may emerge.

• But systemic, structure-changing reforms—like intellectual-property protection, export control overhaul, and tariff rollback—remain uncertain  .

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🧭 Big picture takeaways

• This isn’t just about trade: it’s a leverage game, where both sides juggle economic pain and political optics .

• The true test lies in whether negotiations extend beyond licensing disputes to enforceable policy shifts—tariffs, market access, supply-chain resilience.