Today in London, senior trade officials from the United States and China are meeting, following a preliminary agreement in Geneva, amid intense activity after a 'very positive' phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi.
The discussions, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, focus on the export of rare earth metals, crucial for electric vehicle manufacturing and defense.
🎯 Key developments:
China has issued temporary licenses for exporting rare earth metals as a goodwill gesture.
Markets have shown optimism: stability in U.S. stocks, a decline in the dollar, and rising Asian indices.
There are still deep challenges: trade balance, technology, Taiwan, and Chinese industrial policy.
🔮 Possible scenarios:
Positive scenario: Tangible rapprochement paves the way for tariff reductions and increases investor confidence.
Cautious scenario: Continued ambiguity in the absence of a comprehensive agreement on structural aspects.
🌐 Impact of negotiations on the market:
Progress in negotiations could drive indices higher as it did previously after the Geneva agreement.
China needs stimuli to revive its exports after a noticeable decline.
Investor sentiment is gradually improving, but it is awaiting clearer signals.
🗣️ Discussion question:
Do you think this round really paves the way for a phase of global trade stability? Or does it still require more comprehensive steps to reduce geopolitical risks?