The market remains extremely sluggish in seasonal flatness, however, this week and next week there is a chance for increased volatility. In this regard, I want to consider the market situation and potential prospects. First of all, in the medium term, the probability of flatness around 100k for Bitcoin and 2500 for Ethereum prevails until the opening of the new half-year. There are not enough arguments for significant short squeezes and a trend towards 210k for Bitcoin and 5k for Ethereum. In addition, strong statistics are starting to come out from the USA, which increases the likelihood of retesting 1900-2100 for Ethereum and 85-90k for Bitcoin. That is, until August, I still expect with greater probability a flat 95-110k and 2250-2750 in an optimistic scenario. In a more negative scenario, the likelihood of a major market pullback remains, possibly retesting the lows of the first quarter among the tops.
A significant short squeeze and bullish trend could be facilitated by the cancellation of Trump’s tariffs voluntarily or through court order, a ceasefire in Ukraine, or Brent stabilizing above $69-70 while maintaining growth. If tariffs are reinstated or oil falls below $60, the likelihood of a crypto decline will become extremely high.
Against the backdrop of closing last month's bullish candle and above 2500 for Ethereum, we have technical signals for continued purchases. This week there is a chance for a primary wave of purchases in the first half of the month with an attempt at a short squeeze. However, strong statistics from the USA are likely to continue extinguishing attempts at growth. Starting next week, it is worth paying close attention to the volume of positions in play due to the high likelihood of a market pullback in the second half of the month. At the end of the week, I will assess the probability of maintaining purchases in the second half of the month depending on the statistics released this week and the dynamics of oil.
To date, I still consider the most oversold coins for scalping that have not been assigned a monitoring tag chess fio adx with potential growth waves of 70-100% from current levels. Fan tokens also remain in a significantly undervalued position with growth potential of 100-200%, among which I work with atm acm city porto Lazio alpine juv. For medium-term storage, quick looks interesting with main long-term support at 0.020-21. Growth waves of 30-40% could also show cos slf data pivx token.
As I mentioned earlier, high-cap coins, against the backdrop of seasonal flatness and potential sales, could continue to slowly decline until August, in the absence of significant growth in the tops or the altcoin dominance index.