A forecast of major events in the present and the next few days, along with views on the market.
On June 9, the US and China will once again engage in trade negotiation mechanisms in London, lasting until June 13. The negotiations may help alleviate the sentiment suppressed by tariffs in the risk market. As Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 7,000 points consecutively, I believe favorable outcomes from the negotiations would be a minor benefit, while a breakdown in negotiations would be a major negative, which could significantly impact the market in the coming days.
On June 10, at 1:00 AM, the Apple AI Developer Conference will take place, followed by a one-year US Treasury auction at 11:30 PM, which is not expected to have a major impact.
On June 11, at 1:00 AM, there will be a three-year US Treasury auction, and at 8:30 PM, the CPI data for May will be released. A favorable CPI may increase traders' bets on a rate cut in September, but a rate cut in July or August is nearly impossible. Significant fluctuations in CPI could affect the risk market, but it is just a minor factor driving the market.
On June 12, at 1:00 AM, there will be a ten-year US Treasury auction (key event), and at 8:30 PM, the PPI month-over-month/year-over-year data will be released. The ten-year US Treasury is the most popular bond and acts as a barometer for the risk market; thus, the crypto market may experience volatility at that time.
On June 13, at 1:00 AM, there will be a thirty-year US Treasury auction, and at 10:00 PM, the University of Michigan inflation data will be released. If there is a significant surge in the market in the preceding three days, please secure your profits before June 13, as a data vacuum period will follow, and a pullback is still very likely.
Overall, I personally lean towards Bitcoin breaking through to around 110,000, forming a daily double-top pattern, but I will not attempt to catch the top. Firstly, the upper space is only 5,000 points, and secondly, with no rate cuts, the market's momentum is purely due to an increase in short positions. Therefore, once the liquidations are done and market liquidity has not increased, it may turn downwards. If it continues to break through 115,000, the mainstream CEX Bitcoin contract liquidations will reach 15 billion, which will also be my long-term short position stop-loss point.
