#USChinaTradeTalks

• When & Where

A high-level meeting is taking place today, June 9, 2025, in London, as part of the ongoing 90‑day tariff truce established in Geneva in mid‑May .

• Participants

The U.S. delegation features Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. China is represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with senior trade officials .

• Main Agenda Items

1. Implementation of the 90-day tariff reduction pact from Geneva, where tariffs were mutually rolled back (US: ~30%, CN: ~10%) .

2. Rare‑earth minerals – key sector, with China expected to restore shipments; the U.S. is pushing for deeper export control assurances .

3. Advanced technology & semiconductors, visas, and discrepancies in export/labelling enforcement .

📊 Market & Economic Signals

• Equity Markets

Global markets have rallied modestly on hopes the talks will solidify the Geneva deal. Asian equity indices—Nikkei, Hang Seng, and MSCI Asia–Pacific—are up between 0.7% and 1.4% .

• Oil & Currency

Oil prices remain mostly steady, buoyed by optimism for demand, although light pressure from weak China import figures persists .

The dollar eased after the U.S. May jobs report, reflecting cautious sentiment .

• Trade Data

In May, China’s exports to the U.S. fell sharply—by approximately 34–35%, down to $28.8 billion—while imports decreased as well, deepening concerns .

🎯 What to Expect

Short-Term Outlook

• Likely outcome: limited deals—extension/enforcement of truce, maybe temporary commitments on rare‑earth exports or cooperation on fentanyl control—not radical structural reforms .

Medium–Long Term

• The talks are a confidence-building exercise, aiming to stabilize bilateral ties. However, analysts warn China isn’t likely to dismantle its state‑capitalist model or ease long-term export and tech restrictions .