🕊 What’s Happening in London
High‑level delegations are meeting in London today to extend the 90‑day tariff truce reached in Geneva last month .
U.S. team includes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer .
China is represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng .
---
🎯 Key Agenda Items
Rare‑earth minerals: China halted rare‑earth exports in April, causing supply chain disruptions. Trump says China agreed to resume shipments; the U.S. delegation includes export‑control officials to follow-up .
Export controls & semiconductors: U.S. restrictions on AI chips (e.g. Huawei) and semiconductor equipment are major sticking points .
Tariff truce extension: Markets seek further ceremonial or limited extensions of tariff reductions from the Geneva framework .
Other flashpoints: Fentanyl precursor controls, Chinese student visas, and broader systemic issues (Taiwan, state‑led economy) are expected to come up .
---
📈 Market & Economic Reaction
Asian markets rallied ahead of talks—MSCI Asia‑Pacific up ~0.7%, HK Hang Seng +0.8–1.4% .
U.S. futures slipped slightly, with Dow down ~60 points ahead of the session .
Oil prices saw modest gains last week but held steady today as hopes around economic recovery balanced weak Chinese data .
China's May exports to the U.S. fell ~10% YoY, though overall exports rose 4.8%—slowed by earlier front‑loading of orders .
---
🔍 What Analysts Expect
UNLIKELY major breakthroughs: Analysts see this round as focused on deal extensions, rare‑earth flows, and limited purchases—not deep structural reform .
Positive optics: South China Morning Post calls it a "positive step" despite a "rough road ahead" . London likely hosts meetings without UK participation .
---
---
🧭 Bottom Line
The London talks on June 9 build on the Geneva tariff truce, with a focus on rare‑earth shipments, export controls, and tactical agreements (like increased U.S. purchases, fentanyl cooperation). While unlikely to produce sweeping reforms, they matter for market sentiment and supply‑chain stability. Keep an eye on outcomes related to rare‑earth exports, chip restrictions, and tariff-extension pledges.
---
🔁 Want to Monitor?
Watch for official communiqués late Monday or Tuesday.
Market reaction: pay attention to Asian equities, U.S. futures, and oil/commodity prices.
Policy shifts: look for announcements on rare‑earth license approvals, export‑control adjustments, or U.S. visa changes.