The recent China-US trade negotiations have shown a characteristic of both phased easing and competition, mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. Negotiation Progress and Core Issues

Tariff Adjustments and Mechanism Building: According to the consensus from the Geneva talks (May 2025), China and the US have simultaneously reduced 91% of additional tariffs and suspended 24% of the newly imposed tariffs for 90 days. The current London consultations (June 9) are the first structured meeting following the leaders' call, aimed at implementing the consensus and deepening discussions on topics including technology restrictions, rare earth exports, and supply chain coordination. The US side attempts to include artificial intelligence and chip regulation in the negotiations, while the Chinese side emphasizes the legitimacy of countermeasures.

Structural Contradictions Highlighted: Although tariff pressures have temporarily eased, fundamental differences between the two sides in areas such as technology security (e.g., semiconductor export controls) and industrial subsidies remain unresolved. The US continues to escalate sanctions against Chinese technology companies, while China uses rare earth export controls as a countermeasure, creating a competitive dynamic of 'chip encirclement' and 'rare earth countermeasures'.

2. Negotiation Drivers and Challenges

Economic Pressure as a Driver: High inflation in the US (CPI exceeding 3% for 15 consecutive months) and rising supply chain costs have forced the Trump administration to seek a phased agreement. Meanwhile, China enhances its bargaining power through transshipment trade (e.g., via ASEAN) and local industrial chain upgrades (e.g., rare earth processing technology).

External Variables Impact: Allies such as Japan attempt to exchange a 'China-containment plan' for US tariff exemptions, but China clearly opposes third-party sacrifices of its interests. In addition, domestic legal disputes in the US (e.g., constitutional lawsuits against tariff policies) and global market fluctuations (e.g., oil prices) have increased the complexity of negotiations.

3. Outlook

In the short term, both sides may reach further reductions in tariffs on certain goods (e.g., electric vehicles, agricultural products), but the trend of 'limited decoupling' in the technology sector is difficult to change. In the long term, China and the US need to explore a balance of competition and cooperation through a normalized negotiation mechanism (such as the framework established by the London meeting) to avoid a 'new cold war' style of economic division. The outcome of the negotiations will depend on whether the US side can abandon unilateral thinking and how the Chinese side coordinates its strategies between countermeasures and openness.