When active addresses hit a historical high, DeFi locked funds continue to surge, and the exchange ETH balance declines, will the $2,800 threshold become the starting point of a new chapter for Ethereum?
Since entering June, Ethereum (ETH) on-chain data has sent exciting signals. Weekly active addresses have soared to 17.4 million, reaching a historic high, especially with Layer 2 expansion networks seeing an 18.43% increase in interactions. The adoption rate of Layer 2 also shows a 7.55-fold amplification effect, indicating that the application of scalability technology is driving sustained growth in core network usage.
More notably, despite a slight pullback in cross-chain interactions, the mainnet's activity shows a clear rebound, indicating that retail investors and institutions are refocusing on the Ethereum ecosystem. The strengthening of on-chain momentum lays a solid foundation for a potential momentum breakout.
Is the rise in DeFi locked amounts and capital inflow supporting price stability?
The latest data shows that Ethereum's total locked value (TVL) has risen to $86.63 billion, with a 24-hour growth of 1.28%. This not only indicates that capital is continuously flowing back into the DeFi ecosystem but also reflects renewed market recognition of the long-term prospects of Ethereum-based financial protocols.
Increased capital inflows in areas such as lending, staking, and liquidity mining have boosted on-chain demand. Coupled with this is Ethereum's further consolidation of its position as the underlying settlement layer. The continuously expanding TVL not only solidifies confidence in the DeFi sector but also provides solid fundamental support for ETH's price movements.
Outflows from exchanges signal tightening ETH supply
At the same time, exchange data shows that Ethereum's net flow continues to be negative, with the exchange ETH balance decreasing by 1.59%. This indicates that more investors are choosing to transfer assets to cold wallets or staking contracts, reducing the immediate liquidity supply in the market.
When the exchange balance decreases, the selling pressure naturally eases, and against the backdrop of supply tightening, even a moderate rebound in demand could quickly ignite a price increase. This structural change in liquidity tightening is worthy of high attention from investors.
Decreasing volatility and gathering longs present both risks and opportunities
However, the market is not without concerns. In the past two days, Ethereum's implied volatility has plummeted from 80.25% to 47.3%, indicating that volatility compression may mean prices are building momentum.
As of now, Binance data shows that the long/short ratio of ETH has risen to 1.84, with long positions accounting for 64.82%. Market sentiment clearly leans bullish, but this also conceals the risk of excessive trading congestion. If market sentiment suddenly changes, it could trigger severe price fluctuations, even leading to a long squeeze.
At this time, the ability to track fluctuations and fund movements in real-time becomes the key to victory. For example, by utilizing Mlion.ai, with its AI-driven on-chain monitoring and fund flow tracking capabilities, signals such as changes in exchange balances, whale dynamics, and market sentiment reversals can be captured in real-time, adding data support to your operations and avoiding emotional decision-making.
Technical criticality; the inverse head and shoulders pattern becomes a key observation point
On the technical chart, Ethereum is currently consolidating within the range of $2,383 to $2,824. More importantly, ETH is quietly forming a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Recently rebounding to $2,515.80, with a daily increase of 0.87%, gradually approaching the $2,824 neckline. If this key resistance level can be successfully broken, it will validate the bullish pattern, targeting $3,000 or even higher ranges.
However, if a breakthrough is not effectively achieved, it may fall into a longer consolidation period or even risk a false breakout. The market is currently at a decision point.
Can ETH truly break through $2,824? It depends on these factors
From the soaring active addresses, growing DeFi TVL, increased outflows from exchanges, to the bullish inclination in the derivatives market, all indicators seem to be gearing up for Ethereum's rise. However, the true determinant of the trend remains whether the $2,800 neckline can be strongly breached.
A breakout indicates that a new round of bull market may be initiated; failure could lead to severe turbulence, even triggering short-term capital outflows. This critical point requires close monitoring of on-chain data and sentiment changes.
To avoid being swayed by emotions at this critical moment, I personally recommend fully utilizing AI investment research platforms like Mlion.ai before making decisions, leveraging its on-chain sentiment monitoring, fund flow analysis, and price trend forecasting features to gain insights into subtle market changes and improve the success rate of trading strategies.
In the crypto market, being a second late with information could mean missing out on the entire trend. Choosing scientific investment research tools is essential to gain an advantage in a market full of uncertainties.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investing carries risks; proceed with caution.
