2025/6/9 #BTC走势分析

$BTC Since the volume drop on 6/6, it has formed a V reversal, which is beyond expectations. It was originally thought that 104000 was the limit of the rebound. This position is a high-level chip accumulation area and is also the long-short boundary we are focusing on. The main force took advantage of the weekend liquidity exhaustion to continue a slight climb, reaching a maximum of around 106500, mainly to seize the liquidity of the short sellers. After taking liquidity, it began to decline.

In terms of trend, we have switched to a bearish perspective. The mid-short term has not effectively broken below 104000, continuing to return to a range-bound pattern. Currently, the range is 104000-107000. The effective breakthrough on either side will determine the development of the mid-term trend. Subjectively, we are more bearish. The logic for being bearish: On the economic front, we are still in a tightening phase, gold continues to rise, and funds are still in a risk-averse mood. Additionally, the cryptocurrency narrative itself is exhausted; seasoned investors should have experienced this. The market's fresh blood is scarce. Even with this surge to 11w, there has not been a significant influx of participants.

Structurally, we are still in a consolidation phase after the first wave of decline. The first breakdown did not escape the accumulation area; instead, it surged to the lower edge of the high-level center. The drop on 6/6 attracted a large number of short sellers. From the perspective of funding rates, the overall market is mainly bearish, providing liquidity for the main force's operations. In the emotion of weekend liquidity exhaustion, they harvested the shorts above. However, as a firm bear, the rise and fall provide an opportunity to increase positions.

The resistance area above is 106500-107000, and the support area below is 104500-104000. We still need to wait for direction selection. Before that, we should adopt a high sell and low buy approach from a range-bound perspective.

The community currently holds short positions entered at 106100. If it can return to 107000 and close two K-lines above on the 4-hour level, we will abandon the short strategy in the short term. Below, we will pay attention to the support situation at 104500 to decide the holding time of the short positions.

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