This morning, I chatted about the market in the group and found that everyone is generally pessimistic about it. My impression is that the hot money in this market is still retreating.
When will the turning point for the market arrive? It's hard to say, but I know one principle: as long as we survive in the market, we will naturally know when the market conditions change. There is no need to seek predictions by carving boats to find swords, nor do we need to rely on divination or superstitious predictions about the market. Even if some teachers happen to be correct, they themselves may not truly align with their knowledge and actions.
Most of the time, the market is in a state of garbage time. The inertia of last year's bull market still affects most people. If we continue to use last year’s investment strategies, we will face repeated failures, setbacks, and disappointments. The failure of narratives will become the norm, and the market is increasingly uninterested in stories.
Those who made big money last year mostly did so because they had the right perspective on cryptocurrencies. This year, those who are losing big money still come from either having an overly optimistic perspective or continuously trying to catch the bottom, leading to a turn from profit to loss; gains and losses stem from the same source.
The reason the difficulty has increased, in my opinion, is:
1. The hot money in the market is still in a state of retreat; the ceiling has lowered, and an overly optimistic perspective or chasing highs can easily lead to losses. Even some opportunities that were originally profitable can easily turn into losing situations if one misses the best time to sell or finds themselves buying halfway up the mountain.
2. The connections are unclear; unlike last year, where the connections were correctly identified, even if one missed a chance, the next could still be guessed or there were multiple betas available, which were sufficient (the beta ceiling and sustainability of last year might have been stronger than this year's so-called alpha targets); this year's hotspots are more scattered, making it less effective to grasp the connections compared to precise targeting.
"The strong never complain about the environment; adapting to the market and adjusting strategies is the key."
To briefly outline my own investment research strategy for this year:
1. Focus on precision and careful research, spending a lot of time on research, and reducing trading frequency; primarily short-term; establish a good tracking list for my targets, focus on meticulous work, and follow the progress of some price bottom targets to guide operations, which significantly reduces the probability of losses compared to randomly chasing hotspots.
2. Try to capture significant phase hotspots and reduce pvp; there are far fewer significant hotspots this year compared to last year, and the difficulty of capturing them has increased, but there are still some, such as RFC, B, Pas, labubu, etc.
[1] https://t.co/FAQaeh0zqR
[2] https://t.co/97XfZbwgT9
[3]
