On 08.06.2025 $BTC closed the week at ~$104,330 (spot quotes), but over the weekend jumped to $106,000 (+1.6%). Should we open positions now, or is it better to wait? Let's analyze the facts.

What's happening?

• Weekend moves: The price of $BTC rose on low liquidity. Mondays often 'offset' such jumps, so a pullback to $104,300 or even lower is possible if a gap (price gap) forms. Historically, gaps on CME close in 70% of cases within a week.

• Liquidity zone: If a correction occurs, key levels are $99,200–98,200. This is the stop and liquidation zone where whales can gather liquidity before a rise.

• $BTC Dominance: Currently 62.15% (CoinMarketCap). Altcoins ($ETH $2,631, $SOL $182) look weak, and the market cap of TOTAL3 (alts without $BTC and $ETH) is holding at ~$800 billion. If it falls below, alts may drop further.

• Volatility: The BVOL24H index (BitMEX) has broken a minimum, signaling high volatility for the week. Plus, on Wednesday-Thursday (11–12.06.2025) inflation data (CPI, PPI) will be released, which could swing the market. #VolatilityAhead

Risks and opportunities

• Short-term risks: A pullback of $BTC to $104,300 or $99,200–98,200 due to gap closure or panic before macro data. Alts ($ETH, $SOL) may drop by 5–10% if TOTAL3 falls below $800 billion.

• Outlook (1–2 weeks): Positive news (trade deals, de-escalation of the trade war) could push $BTC to $110k, $ETH to $2,800, $SOL to $200. Gold ($2,650/ounce) is also in the interest zone, as it correlates with crypto on QE.

• Futures: Going long is risky now due to uncertainty and weakness in altcoins. Shorting is also dangerous — volatility can take out positions. Better to wait for confirmation of growth ($BTC above $108,000) or a correction to $99,200 for a long.

My opinion The market is preparing for a move, but now is not the time for hasty futures trades. High volatility and macro data can swing $BTC in either direction. Patience is your best friend. Wait for the liquidity zone ($99,200–98,200) or a breakout above $108,000 for a clear entry. An altseason is possible if $BTC.D drops to 55%, but for now, altcoins are weak, so don't rush. #PatiencePays

Forecast

• Short-term (1–2 weeks):

◦ Bearish scenario: $BTC to $110k if it breaks $108,000 on news about trade deals. $ETH to $2,800, $SOL to $200. Entry point: $BTC ~$99,200, take-profit $108,000.

◦ Bearish scenario: A pullback to $99,200–98,200 (70% probability) or $95,000 if CPI shows inflation above 3.5%. $ETH to $2,400, $SOL to $170.

• Mid-term (Q3 2025): If $BTC.D drops to 55%, altseason could push $ETH to $3,500, $SOL to $250.

• Risks: Inflation data (CPI >3.5%) or weak altcoins could drop $BTC to $95k, and TOTAL3 below $800 billion.

Conclusion Long or short? For now, we put a comma after 'Longing is NOT allowed'. Wait for a correction to $99,200 or confirmation of growth above $108,000. Volatility and macro data will determine the course of the week, so maintain risk management and don't chase FOMO. Patient traders catch profit, while impatient ones catch knives! 😜 #CryptoStrategy #Bitcoin #Volatility