Good morning everyone, today is February 27th, and there are less than two days left until the end of February, which is Monday. It is difficult to interpret today’s BTC/ETH market because there are many factors to consider and there are many uncertain factors that affect market trends.
At the same time, we should also consider that the students' enthusiasm for the market, which was finally ignited, was extinguished by a pee, and their excessive pessimism affected the subsequent opportunities, thus affecting their trading mentality and missing out when they needed to enter the market. The market is very simple, but the human heart is complicated. The key problem lies in our subjective conjecture. We are subjectively unwilling to see the market price fluctuation go in the direction we expect. The market in the middle and early March is more difficult than that in January and February. Everyone should be mentally prepared for this.
1. Basic news
What can be confirmed in March are the release of non-agricultural data on March 10, the release of CPI data on March 14, and the release of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting at 3 a.m. on March 23. Especially the matter of interest rate hike, although we also know the market's expectations, we still have lingering fears before such a thing comes. In addition, there may be unexpected emergencies, which will have an uncertain impact on the market. Therefore, it is difficult to trade, but if you stick to a trading system, you will eliminate a lot of interference, and it will be much easier to only trade within your circle of competence. The difficulty lies in the unity of knowledge and action.
2. Technical Analysis
1. At the weekly level, BTC tested the 5-week line 22900U to stop falling and rebounded, and ETH tested the 30-week line 1560U to stop falling and rebounded, and the closing lines were above the 30-week and 5-week lines. However, the weekly RSI indicators have begun to show a top divergence. We cannot predict how the market will go, but we must pay attention to the risks that exist. Qinglong's trading philosophy repeatedly mentions that we must do certain and sure markets, give up uncertain and uncertain markets, and don't make mistakes even if you miss them.
2. The trend of ETH is consistent with the market status we analyzed last Saturday, fluctuating around 1560-1680U. Then 1680U is a very critical pressure point for ETH. In the case of top divergence, the probability of a breakthrough is relatively small, and an immediate breakthrough is very likely to be a lure to buy. The staged bullish counterattack point is at 1495U, where you can use a light position to grab a rebound.
3. BTC also broke through the daily lifeline of 23000u and began to stop falling and rebound. There is a strong suppression at 23650U. In the case of a daily top divergence, if it wants to break through the previous high, even if there is a strong suspicion of inducing more buying, the staged bull counterattack point is at 21600U. Here, you can take a light position to grab the rebound like Ethereum.
4. Technical analysis tools are static, while market trends are dynamic. Technical analysis tools serve market trend analysis and can analyze, identify, and follow trends, but they cannot predict trends. Therefore, we will make corrections based on real-time conditions as the market evolves.
Livermore said, "Good investors are always waiting, always patient, waiting for the market to confirm their judgment. Remember, don't fully believe in your judgment until the market itself confirms your view."
