Current market trends indicate that most analysts believe a signal for the end of the downtrend has appeared: specifically, the V-shaped reversal structure observed over the last four hours. However, I still maintain the view I mentioned in the VIP group in recent days that the downtrend or correction may not have ended, and it will be difficult for the market to continue a strong bullish trend as it did before in the short term.
There are two main reasons for this:
1. The previous upward rhythm of Bitcoin has deteriorated in the short term. If bulls want to continue rising, even if the market has hit bottom, it generally requires a period of consolidation to accumulate strength. Currently, it is evident that there has not been a significant consolidation phase following the decline.
2. In the last two days, the rebound has seen a noticeable increase in funding rates. The most likely scenario is: a large number of short positions being closed + long positions entering the market. However, the closing of short positions means there isn’t enough fuel for a rise. As for the entering long positions, they are typically not entering near the lowest point; they are chasing after the rebound, which means they are buying at a higher price. Generally, major players do not operate this way. Therefore, my view is that the previous upward rhythm of Bitcoin has deteriorated. Even if the downtrend has ended, it will still require time to consolidate and gather strength, especially since there are no clear signals indicating the end of the downtrend. It is merely a price action structure that “might be a V-shaped reversal,” and I believe the failure rate is still quite high. Thus, before an ideal signal indicating the end of the downtrend appears, I think there is still a possibility for prices to continue to decline. $100,000 is a very critical support level. Market analysis for reference only! #BTC