$BTC Market Analysis

1. Market Fundamentals & Sentiment Changes

Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around 105k, with short-term rebounds, but overall sentiment tends to be neutral to weak.

The micro sentiment indicator 'Fear and Greed Index' remains neutral today, around the 50–55 range, lacking a clear directional bias.

Overall market risk aversion continues, affected by a weakening stock market (S&P and Nasdaq futures down about 1.5%), increasing BTC's recent pullback pressure.

2. Technical Key Levels

Support Level: Recent price support is concentrated around 100k and 95.5k USD. If these areas are broken, the trend may continue to weaken.

Resistance Level: Upper resistance is seen around ~107k USD. If it cannot break through, short-term pressure is evident.

Chart patterns show a typical 'neckline retest' structure, with limited short-term rebound potential. If the retest fails, it may trigger subsequent downward movement.

3. Derivatives Market Dynamics

Recently, significant long positions were liquidated. According to data, a nearly 100 million USD BTC long position was liquidated after falling below 100k.

There are still many short orders between 102k–108k, forming potential support or brake points for a trend change.

4. Comprehensive Judgment: Structure Not Yet Fully Bottomed

Gap Filling: The CME gap has been mostly filled, posing obstacles to short-term upward movement.

Liquidation Range: The next risk of long liquidation focuses on 100k–102k. If it breaks below, it will face additional pressure.

The concentrated area for short liquidations is between 106,039-108,129 USD (average price of the top two short positions on the Hyperliquid platform), while strong support for long positions is at 104,297-102,065 USD (30-day exchange net outflow cost line).

Today's market continues a neutral to weak trend, with rebounds peaking but difficult to break through. However, this is a typical pattern of speculation by whales through derivatives stop-loss and liquidation games. Combined with naked K and order book analysis, pay close attention to whether 100k–102k can hold.