UniQuant Market Analysis

June 12, 2025

1. Liquidation Game: High Position Suppression vs Short Squeeze

BTC yesterday targeted the range of approximately $110K–$110.4K, triggering a large number of short liquidations. According to Glassnode data, short liquidations surged by about 240% between $105K and $107K.

If it breaks through $111K, it could trigger about $924M in short liquidations; if it falls below $108K, there would be about $1.14B in long liquidation pressure.

Therefore, the main force attracts short positions through high-level price increases, and then suppresses the price through large limit orders, deploying a liquidation strategy of 'high first, low later'.

2. Order Structure & Liquidity Range

Currently, there is a large accumulation of sell-stops and selling pressure above $111K, forming a structural 'ceiling'; below, $100K is the liquidity center and stage bottom.

Technically, the range of $107K–$110K is the key area determining the market direction: a breakout will attract short covering; if suppressed, it indicates that the main force may continue to apply pressure, falling into a liquidation trap.

3. Market Sentiment and On-chain Data

Long-term holders continue to accumulate, with an increase of about 309K BTC over the past 30 days, reaching a historical high. Long-term players are in the accumulation phase at low prices.

Short-term holders, however, have seen a withdrawal of 833K BTC, reflecting a short-term cooling of sentiment.

BTC funding rates have turned negative, indicating a dominance of shorts in the market, while also suggesting potential short-term liquidation pressure.

On the technical chart, a bull flag breakout pattern has formed, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, which is considered moderately bullish. However, the daily line still needs to reclaim the resistance of $106.6K–$106.8K for confirmation.

Support levels to watch: $107K, $105K, and $100K. These ranges correspond to signs of short-term liquidity restructuring and liquidation. Resistance above is at $111K–$112K, and any higher would represent a new round of short positions.

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