Recorded the closing of the second day, totaling 48 hours, with 16 trades in total, 13 profitable trades, and a win rate of 81% (the opening and closing prices in the image are obscured to avoid strategy research, reducing its lifespan; sorry).
First, let's talk about the feeling from these 48 hours: tired and exhilarating.
Having played contracts for so many years, I have experienced great ups and downs, studied countless indicators, written many quantitative bots, tried Martingale variant strategies, made profits and incurred losses, and my mindset has collapsed too. I rolled 10,000 USDT to 500,000 USDT, then lost it all back to zero; this took six months, and the outcome was always due to mindset and position management leading to liquidation.
Luckily, I cashed out some in the middle; otherwise, it would have been a complete waste of time.
Back to the event contracts, I accidentally discovered this thing when I updated to the new version of Binance the day before yesterday. I found it quite novel, like a casino game. I casually placed a trade and lost; this is one of the three current losing trades. Strictly speaking, if I had formally started using the model strategy, I would only have lost two trades.
With odds of 0.8, anyone who understands mathematics and probability knows that most people will definitely lose; it's not an exaggeration to say 90%. The expected value with an 80% win rate in the long term is 0.64<1, and these odds require you to maintain at least 56% win rate in the long term to achieve a profitable state. This is also the reason most people incur losses.
For me, event contracts feel more like an experiment. Recently, the quantitative bot I was working on exploded in a month due to the banter between Elon Musk and Trump. During the process, my quantitative long position in ETH was supported by a Martingale strategy, and since it was a high leverage quant strategy aiming for a monthly return of 100-125%, the risk was very high.
After the quantitative blow-up, I continued using the quant strategy and made modifications for event contracts, which are very suitable for event contracts. Event contracts have a buy-and-hold characteristic, and even if I add to my position, it limits the number of trades. In a sense, this addresses my biggest weakness, which is position management.
I just need to ensure the win rate.
In the past two days, my records have gained a bit of attention. There are many friends in the comments asking me to lead them. First of all, I want to thank you for your trust. Secondly, I think you may all be confused losers or novices. It's important to understand that achieving absolute profitability through being led in event contracts is very difficult; timeliness is an issue, and it directly affects the outcome's difference.
Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish:
Tossing a coin ten thousand times does not require all ten thousand to be heads; it only needs to increase the probability of it being heads to over 56% to win in this gambling game.
Clearly, the probability advantage needs to be raised to at least 56%, which can be achieved by combining strategies, trading fundamentals, and effectively using indicators. I use a strategy plus tools, which has allowed me to achieve an 81% win rate.
The most important thing is mindset; exit when you lose, continue when you win. It's just a game, a dream.