Situation overview The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act), which is being put to vote in the U.S., could radically change the stablecoin market. Its key aim is to create a clear regulatory framework for assets like $USDC and $USDT, with strict requirements:
• 100% reserve backing with U.S. Treasury bonds or other highly liquid assets (with monthly audits).
• Prohibition on using reserves for other purposes (rehypothecation).
• Licensing: issuers with a capitalization of over $10 billion are subject to federal oversight, while smaller ones may be regulated at the state level.
As of 06.06.2025, the capitalization of stablecoins reaches $249 billion (with $152 billion in $USDT and $61 billion in $USDC), which already exceeds the peak of 2021 ($150 billion). The bill promises to 'legalize' stablecoins, making them a safe bridge for institutional capital.
Why is this important?
1 Security and trust:
◦ Regulation eliminates risks of 'scams' or loss of peg to the dollar, as seen with TerraUSD.
◦ Institutions (banks, funds) will gain a 'reliable' instrument for entering the crypto market without fear of sanctions or instability.
◦ For example, $USDC (80% of reserves in Treasury bonds, 20% in cash) already meets the requirements, while $USDT may face difficulties due to lower transparency.
2 U.S. interests:
◦ Stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, strengthening it as the world's reserve currency.
◦ Stablecoin issuers are already the 18th largest holder of Treasury bonds ($120 billion in $USDT). The law could raise demand to $2 trillion, reducing servicing costs of the U.S. national debt ($36 trillion).
◦ The Fed could launch QE of $8–12 trillion by 2026–2027, which would spur inflation and push $BTC to $150k–$200k, $ETH to $6000, $SOL to $400.
3 Mass transition to stablecoins:
◦ Tech giants are already in the game: Apple partners with Circle ($USDC), Google accepts $PYUSD, Twitter and Visa launch payment solutions on stablecoins.
◦ Stablecoins are cheaper than bank transfers (fees of 0.0001% vs. 2–5%) and faster (minutes vs. 1–5 days in SWIFT). This will stimulate the transition from fiat to 'digital dollar'.
◦ In countries with high inflation (Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria), stablecoins will become the primary means of capital preservation. 47% of users in these markets already use stablecoins for savings.
Potential market impact
• Supercycle? In 2021, $150 billion in stablecoins drove the market to $3 trillion. Now liquidity is higher ($249 billion), and with regulation and institutional capital, the capitalization of stablecoins could rise to $2–3 trillion by 2027. This could push $BTC to $200k, $ETH to $8000, $SOL to $500.
• Mass adaptation: Buying crypto will become easy (one click in a banking app), attracting retail investors. FOMO on 'green candles' will raise demand.
• Last exponential cycle: After this, the crypto market will become a 'normal' financial market with moderate growth (slightly above inflation).
Risks and challenges
• Regulatory pressure: $USDT (Tether) may not meet requirements due to opacity. Their CEO Paolo Ardoino states that $USDT strengthens the dollar, but a local subsidiary may be needed to operate in the U.S.
• Conflict of interest: The U.S. Treasury, controlling stablecoins, gains influence over large buyers of their debt. This could lead to political manipulation.
• Recession: If Musk's forecasts are accurate, a recession in H2 2025 (60% probability) could temporarily drop $BTC to $80k, $ETH to $2300, $SOL to $150.
• Monopolization: Smaller stablecoin issuers may not withstand compliance costs, leading to the dominance of large players like Circle ($USDC).
Forecast 🔮
• Short-term (Q3–Q4 2025): If the GENIUS Act is passed, $BTC could reach $120k, $ETH could reach $4500, $SOL could reach $250 on the wave of institutional capital. Entry points: $BTC ~$100k, $ETH ~$2500, $SOL ~$170. Take profit: $115k, $3000, $200.
• Mid-term (2026): The capitalization of stablecoins could rise to $1 trillion if banks and corporations massively integrate $USDC and $PYUSD. $BTC to $150k, $ETH to $6000.
• Long-term (2027–2030): Stablecoins at $2–3 trillion will push the market to $10 trillion, but a correction is inevitable after the FOMO peak. Real assets (real estate, uranium) will become a hedge against inflation.
Conclusion 📝 The GENIUS Act is not just regulation, but a catalyst for the mass influx of capital into crypto. Stablecoins will become the 'digital dollar', accessible to the whole world, which could trigger a supercycle with a capitalization of $2–3 trillion. But this is likely the last chance for exponential growth. Watch for liquidity zones ($ETH ~$2440, $SOL ~$170), maintain risk management, and do not chase FOMO. Crypto is transitioning from 'experiment' to mainstream, but whales always play on the crowd's emotions. #CryptoRevolution #Stablecoins #GENIUSAct