Happy Saturday, brothers! You might still be snoring in bed, but the student crowd has already rushed to the exam hall, starting their journey to chase dreams! Let’s wish these future world pioneers great success and extraordinary performance!
Last night’s short position that opened at the first contact of 2542, the market makers just wouldn’t shake it off; it was so close to connecting! In the early morning, there was another attempt to test the high point, but it was weak; it was pressed down after rebounding to 2506.
Although the short position last night didn't necessarily hit, if you chased the long position above 2500, then you really need to reflect on yourself, brother!
BTC Attention:
Support: 98500 / 97669
Resistance: 105461 / 108200 / 112000
Now the key point for Bitcoin is around 103965; both long and short positions can be executed over the weekend, pulling up and then crashing down, or crashing down and then rebounding. This kind of sharp rise and fall in the market is just a constant mental torture. The hope for interest rate cuts in June has been shattered, and with the conflict between Trump and Musk, the North American market's future is more uncertain. Whether it can hit a new high this year is hard to say, but the peak in the first half of the year is likely 111959.
ETH Attention:
Support: 2343 / 2285 / 2215
Resistance: 2515-2542 range / 2600
Now it is fiercely wrestling around the 2466 line, patiently wait for the market to pull back in the afternoon or evening for a wave, looking for opportunities to go long after inducing a rise; this tactic is not new on weekends, it’s a familiar rhythm!
Operational thought:
Yesterday's resistance levels have basically been retested; the target for the pullback after the sharp drop has been achieved, but unfortunately, it hasn’t changed the bearish pattern. Next, it may need to consolidate for a few days—short as 3-5 days, long as 7-15 days of oscillation. After that, there may need to be another wave of decline to confirm whether it has bottomed, and observe the bottom turnover situation to see if it’s really a bottom, whether there’s market recognition; otherwise, it could all be a 'continuation of the decline.' So the current operational thought is: short on the rebound, long on new lows; don’t be greedy, don’t gamble; the trend is still on the bearish side; managing risk is the most important!
Alright, let’s continue to take a look at the situation of altcoins:
Let's take a look at SUI first:
SUI dropped as low as 2.87, and at this position, a bunch of large orders came in; it seems this washout is almost over, and this could be the lowest point for the coming months. The nature of this coin is like this; if it really wanted to crash, it would have shown a big bearish candle earlier, instead of dropping so gently.
Total bucket coin
Although it broke below that key position, it didn’t drop directly, indicating that this drop wasn’t strong enough and lacked momentum, it was a false drop. Since it hasn’t developed a sustained downward trend, it’s likely to oscillate near this key point for a few days, and when the rhythm is right, slowly pull back.
PEPE
PEPE has dropped from 1.6 to 1.0, an overall correction of over 30%. If you want to return to the original position, it needs to rise by 60%, so this wave has indeed been quite deep. Its maximum support is at 0.98, and if it drops further, it won’t have much significance; the gains from the previous surge must be preserved, and returning to the starting point is not cost-effective for it. Looking now, the least resistance is still above, and the direction still needs to look upward.
MASK, TRB we have mentioned before!
Let me recap $MASK and reorganize this logic:
These key points are actually typical positions where the main force is closing long positions and building short positions. You see that wave of OI suddenly broke through my designated red line, indicating that the market is starting to change.
At this point, there are only two possibilities:
1. Retail investors are starting to chase long positions, seeing the rise and getting envious, following the trend and rushing in;
2. The market maker is closing long positions while opening more short positions. Note: Here, it is impossible for the market maker to increase long positions!
Regardless of which possibility, this wave is already giving us a clear hint: take profits on long positions and open short positions; the direction is about to turn.
If you want more precise points, you can also refer to the liquidity heat map.
Some things really need to be mentioned several times recently; seeing is fate, don’t miss out:
1. Sahara AI's public offering starts KYC tomorrow, and there are only three days, so hurry up! Now KYC has been relaxed, most regions can pass. The funds will start on the 14th, and you’ll need to operate again in between; don’t forget!
2. Brothers still refreshing Binance Alpha, remember not to stop, hold on! Those who have been cut off now may need to work hard to catch up; you need to refresh tens of thousands of USD a day to keep up. Today’s $AB needs 225 points, and the airdrop can sell for around 80 USD, don’t waste real money.
3. Base has been quite quiet recently; aside from a few familiar faces, there isn’t much new, but the quieter it is, the more worth keeping an eye on it; once there are big movements, it’s an opportunity to get ahead.
4. On the BSC side, I feel like CZ is starting to hype up memes again, changing avatars and sending coded messages, it feels like something is about to happen. If you like PVP, you can keep an eye on it; I'm just observing, participating occasionally. By the way, you can keep an eye on that Wlfi trading competition to see which projects have hard strength during this phase, and rush in when it corrects.
COLLAT reminds everyone:
90m dropped to 27m; how could it not be RWA? The louder the volume, the harsher the cutting of leeks.
RWA has been mentioned since the beginning of 2024 with $ondo; every once in a while, it gets hyped up again, but so far, I haven’t seen where RWA is strong.
It’s not as grand as the narrative the Metaverse initially provided, and in the end, it dispersed like a bubble.
Today's achievement:
APE brothers, today is another perfect day!
In the morning, I shorted Bitcoin and made nearly 50,000! In the afternoon, I saw that the rebound was about done, so I shorted the altcoin APE again, and before sleeping, I successfully made nearly double the profit, netting over 1000 USD, a small gain is still a gain!
Market changes quickly; brothers who still don’t know how to layout shouldn’t feel confused; I, who am invincible, am still performing steadily!
FARTCOIN feels great! Another consecutive win!
Yesterday afternoon's short position continued to be handled well, making a small double profit, clinching it! Let’s take some profits first and leave a portion for the target.
Market changes quickly; if you want to keep up, come join!
How retail investors can start out in the crypto world—steadily accumulating capital?
I’ve mentioned before that retail investors mixing in the crypto space is definitely more cost-effective than trading stocks or looking for opportunities outside the circle.
This time I’ll say a bit more, why?
Because there are too many 'coin-dumping' projects in the crypto space; to put it bluntly, there’s a lot of money spent on marketing and subsidies, and these opportunities are basically free perks.
Look at the projects that have been most suitable for retail investors to capitalize on these past two months—Binance Alpha—is the best example. Binance has directly used most of the new project listing budget to subsidize retail investors, aiming to strategically squeeze the survival space of second and third-tier exchanges.
For small investors, the least necessary thing in the early stages is to chase those high-risk meme coins based on luck. No one can guarantee you’ll hit it right, and even if the success rate is 50%, if you miss the first shot, the principal is gone. Moreover, if you are making money from outside while pouring money into the market, your mindset can easily collapse, and you may lose all confidence.
What small investors should do first is to steadily increase their principal. Therefore, participating in some 'freebies' or 'earning' activities that ensure capital preservation is the most stable path. This way, you don’t need to keep taking money from outside and can stay in web3 continuously. This sense of security and sustainability is the core foundation for wealth growth.
There are actually many similar opportunities, but the reality is that most retail investors look high but act little; high vision but low execution.
Let me casually give a fresh example:
Just the priority quota allocation table for buidlpad that just ended this morning; did you complete the tasks as required and submit on time?
In my judgment, as long as those who complete the tasks as required will basically make a profit, especially suitable for small capital retail investors. Just wait and see; once the fundraising ends, you’ll see the results.
Opportunities like this are really not rare in the crypto world: capital is safe, and there can be additional earnings. Before you have one million, the most important thing to do is to patiently accumulate these 'freebie' opportunities; don’t rush to chase those high-risk get-rich dreams.
But the key is—did you see it?
After seeing it, have you seriously thought about it?
After thinking about it, did you really go do it?
Let me organize a few obvious clues from Alpha and simply state them:
1. SaharaLabsAI is a very strong AI chain; the team is robust, and the VCs behind them are reliable, having raised quite a bit; their direction is also very positive. All this information is public; just go check it on RootDataCrypto.
2. Buidlpad is a new project platform developed by former Binance people; it has been online for almost a year, and so far, they have only launched one project—$LAYER, which yielded explosive returns. This time, they finally released the second new project; do you think the quality and profit expectations will be poor?
Moreover, this new project has a capital-safe over-subscription mechanism; the more money you put in, the more you get, definitely a test of speed and capital rhythm.
3. Recently, you might have noticed a bunch of people hyping up Sahara; why? Just flip through the official Twitter accounts of S family and B family, and you can see they’ve organized a social event where writing can earn more new project quota rewards.
4. Many influencers have recently changed their avatars to include elements from the Sahara desert fox. This is also part of their social activity; through the official website's tool, you can easily add decorations to your avatar and get a unique number. It's quite simple. I mentioned this yesterday.
Do you think these matters will eventually offer some extra benefits? I think it’s quite possible.
And you see, this information can basically be easily found; many bloggers even provide free Alpha for traffic; it’s really pure free riding. Have you ever seen such an atmosphere in Web2?
But in the crypto world, at least at this stage, I’ve really seen quite a few people willing to share and teach others how to make money. Although it's deep here, this atmosphere of 'publicly leading people to make money' is something I haven't encountered much in other industries.
Over the past few years, I’ve really suffered many losses and gained insights. I used to be enthusiastic about guiding friends into the circle, but now I’ve lost that drive. Occasionally, I still have the impulse to write, just to take advantage of the remaining passion to mention some more stable opportunities, just to look out for those retail friends who are still watching seriously.
As for those who want to argue? You're right; I really don’t have time to debate with you. I write more to please myself, not to persuade anyone. If you like it, watch; if you don’t, just walk away.
My biggest realization is: if making money still depends on someone pushing you to do it, then such giant babies deserve not to make money. Their fate is already written; don’t waste your effort trying to save them; it’s meaningless.
