Over 3.6 trillion Shiba Inu [SHIB] worth $43.6 million were transferred to Coinbase Institutional, while 100.45 billion Shiba Inu worth $1.21 million were sent to Binance by a dormant whale. These large transactions occurred within hours of each other, sparking speculation about smart money exiting.
Maintains the demand area at $0.00001225, but a drop below $0.00001028 could lead to a sharp decline.
Large transaction volumes increased, while trading volumes below $10 decreased by 12%, indicating a decline in individual interest.
Naturally, the activation of dormant wallets after long periods often coincides with significant shifts in investor sentiment or reaching distribution peaks.
In this case, timing and volume suggest that whales may be offloading their investments while retail activity declines, creating a fragile situation near a weak support level.
Could immediate selling pressure ease?
SHIB exchange reserve decreased by 4.11%, bringing the total reserve value to $1.076 billion.
This decline indicates reduced selling pressure in the near term, as fewer cryptocurrencies remain available for sale on exchanges. However, this may also reflect previous sell-offs or whale transfers to cold storage.
It is important to note that a decrease in reserves alone does not indicate a bullish trend. In this context, the decline in reserves coincides with a downward price movement and whale exits, complicating the interpretation.
However, it provides short-term hope that aggressive dumping may temporarily ease while the market reassesses its direction.
SHIB Exchange Reserve in USD
Source: TradingView
SHIB: Whale Activity vs. Retail Participation
The distribution of transaction volume shows a sharp increase in high-value SHIB transfers, particularly in the range from $100,000 to $1 million, which has increased by over 1600%.
Smaller trading ranges, such as from $1 to $10, have declined by over 12%, indicating a decrease in retail interest. These shifts typically appear during distribution phases when large players exit while retail interest wanes.
Moreover, if liquidity fails to absorb this volume, the risk of sharp movements increases.
In other words, whales are moving while retail is not. This could lead to a rapid break of support areas.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Will the increase in short interest continue?
The funding rate for SHIB has dropped to -0.0036%, indicating that traders are paying for remaining short, which is an increasing bearish stance.
Historically, prolonged negative funding rates precede sharp downward movements or fuel short position liquidations during bounce periods.
Liquidation activity shows limited forced exits from both sides. Short liquidations reached $8.89 thousand, while long liquidations amounted to only $18.85 - which are almost negligible.
These figures confirm that traders are avoiding high leverage or that they have significantly reduced their debts already.
Therefore, the lack of strong liquidations indicates a reduced risk of short or long-term pressure in the near term.
Without sufficient forced pressure, it is unlikely that SHIB will experience significant price movements.
Source: CoinGlass
Can SHIB rebound from the demand zone?
SHIB hovered around $0.00001225, a level slightly above the historical demand zone near $0.00001028.
This level closely aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level, making it technically significant support. The stochastic relative strength index is in oversold territory, indicating a probability of price decline. However, the downward momentum remains, and failure to defend this demand area could push SHIB toward the 1.618 level at $0.00000573.
Therefore, while this area provides potential for a rebound, overall market sentiment must improve to confirm a sustainable reversal.
Technical outlook for SHIB
Source: TradingView
SHIB is facing a critical turning point.
Whale exits, rising short selling interest, and declining retail support paint a bearish picture. Nonetheless, the price is now stabilizing in a key demand area, supported by technical indicators in the oversold territory and decreasing reserves.
What happens next depends on the buyer's reaction.
A rebound from here could trap sellers and provide short-term relief. However, a breakdown below $0.00001028 could accelerate the drop to deeper Fibonacci levels.