A sustainable move towards $270 billion in market capitalization is a key factor in confirming the structure for the launch of the alternative currency season.
Cryptocurrency markets have seen a slight recovery overall, but it is the alternative currencies - not Bitcoin - that led this recovery. Naturally, this raised speculation about the possibility of intense sell-offs. However, the data painted a different picture.
Weak alternative currency inflows indicate calm amid volatility.
While price volatility intensified, the number of alternative currency inflows to trading platforms remained weak.
On major platforms like Binance, Coinbase, OKEx, and Bybit, inflows barely exceeded 30,000 - which is far below the highs of over 100,000 recorded during previous corrections in March and December 2024.
This was different from the past, where alternative currencies experienced intense sell-offs before major corrections.
The steady flow pattern represents a change in trader behavior, perhaps towards decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and swaps to USDC and USDT.
Alternative currencies, alternative currencies, alternative currencies
Source: Julio Moreno/X
The situation is calm... very calm
However, when taking data into account from centralized exchanges only, it may be misleading for overall market activity.
The calm inflow was an indicator that holders were not rushing to sell their positions yet. This suggested a decline in panic and the likelihood of long-term buying.
With the uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions, the fear and greed index at 52 indicated that sentiment has returned to neutral after sharp volatilities that drove most cryptocurrencies down.
This was an indicator of a retreat from panic, with efforts to rectify the situation.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Have you ever seen this before? 2025 reflects the pattern of 2021
The neutral level was not an indicator of excessive greed or fear, but rather a sign of cautious optimism. Recent volatility and declines due to liquidations have reset the markets.
Could the alternative currency season index flip?
A look at the alternative currency season index showed that the measure dropped back to 26 after being in the thirties previously.
This indicated that Bitcoin still dominates the recent volatility. However, alternative currencies have not been completely marginalized - some signs of recovery have emerged.
If the index exceeds 50, it will confirm a stronger trend for alternative currencies. Currently, the balance leans towards Bitcoin, but the dynamics could change rapidly.
In conclusion, comparing the alternative currency seasons of 2021 and 2025 showed one commonality after another, which is a 'double scam' just below the one-month moving average, followed by a strong recovery.
At that time, this led to a sharp rise in alternative currencies that lasted for several months.
In 2025, we have already seen two sharp declines below $180 billion, followed by two recoveries. The structure is in place, but execution depends on what comes next.
Alternative currencies
However, trading volume and overall growth are still absent in 2025. If strength increases towards $270 billion in total alternative currency value, we may see a breakout.
However, the inability to remain above this moving average may thwart this move. The formation was there, although it needed more support and flows from utility companies to confirm it.
