Ethereum market faces a crucial test with the "Non-Farm Payroll data"; how to grasp the severe volatility?

Tonight at 20:30, the market will anticipate the major release of the U.S. May non-farm employment data. The previous value was 175,000, with market expectations at a median of 130,000.

Recent employment market indicators show that the ADP employment data released on Wednesday recorded only 37,000 (expected 110,000), hitting a new low since March 2023; ISM non-manufacturing PMI employment component fell into contraction territory (48.1); and the unemployment rate remains high at 4.2%. Multiple leading indicators point to a significant cooling of the employment market, making it likely that actual data will be below expectations.

Data impact analysis in three dimensions:

If the data is significantly below expectations: this will strengthen the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier (current market pricing indicates a 68% probability of a rate cut in September), providing short-term benefits for risk assets;

Changes in capital flow: the U.S. dollar index may come under pressure, with some funds possibly rotating into gold and cryptocurrencies for hedging;

Market volatility characteristics: after a short-term rebound, one should be alert to a "buy the expectation sell the fact" market, and concerns about a medium- to long-term economic recession might trigger a new round of risk-off selling (referencing the synchronous decline of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency markets after Wednesday's ADP data).

Key technical points:

Bitcoin (BTC): Currently in a phase of oversold correction, but the volume-price structure indicates insufficient rebound momentum (24-hour trading volume shrank by 23%). The 4-hour chart is showing a downward channel, with multiple resistances in the 104-105 area (including the 7-day moving average and previous low conversion point), while the 100-101 range below serves as psychological support. Pay special attention to possible instantaneous volatility after the data release (historical data shows that the average volatility on non-farm payroll night reaches ±3.5%).

Ethereum (ETH):

Intraday rebound is hindered at the key resistance level of 2480 (previous support turned resistance), with the 4-hour MACD showing a bottom divergence but not confirming with volume. The area above 2480-2520 is a dense trading zone; if a long upper shadow appears, one should be cautious of a potential trap for bulls; the area below 2380-2400 serves as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, breaching it may test the 2300 integer level.