Thinking about Trump continuing to raise tariffs,

Thinking about the escalation of Russia and Ukraine,

Even thinking about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates,

I never expected that the black swan would be their mutual tearing...

However, in fact, such events do not shake the fundamentals of cryptocurrency at all:

1. It does not affect the market's faith in cryptocurrency.

2. It does not affect the real economy of the U.S. stock market, at most it can only have a substantial impact on TSLA stock.

3. It does not affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Even Musk's position may not necessarily influence Trump's policies.

So the negative impact of this "black swan" is limited,

But the fragility of the market is evident. If this happened in 2024, the impact on the market would be weaker, but it happens to occur in June 2025, with some believing the bull market has already ended, leading to the crypto market being even more "weakened" than in 2024.

However, Brother Bee wants to ask, the impact of ETFs is increasing, will traditional on-chain indicators still be as effective as before? Do ETF investors believe more in macro cycles or BTC's halving cycle?

As for altcoins, the four-year cycle formed by BTC's halving, what does it have to do with altcoins?