Whales dominate ETH pricing power
According to the ETH address supply distribution data, addresses holding 1,000-10,000 ETH account for 17.86%, those holding 10,000-100,000 account for 30%, and those holding over 100,000 account for 23.8%. These three major whale groups collectively hold 71% of ETH, indicating that the pricing power of ETH is increasingly concentrated in the hands of whales and institutions, similar to the BTC market.
Whale sell-offs drag down prices
Recently, ETH prices have fluctuated between $2,500 and $2,600, failing to break through, primarily due to profit-taking by whales. For instance, large sell orders on May 9 and May 15 put pressure on the market. Historical data shows similar situations in March, May, and December 2024, where prices of ETH often fell into a slump following whale sell-offs. These sell orders mostly represent short-term chips (such as bottom fishing in April and selling in May), indicating the activity of short-term speculators.
Long-term holders are key
Notably, during this round of selling pressure, long-term holders (those holding for 3 months to 3 years) did not cash out en masse, contrasting with the concentrated selling in March and December 2024. This indicates that long-term holders are not eager to exit at the current price, supporting ETH's resilience against declines.
Market momentum: a dilemma
Comprehensive momentum indicators show that the current market is neither overheated (red area) nor extremely sluggish (green area). $2,500-$2,600 is not the optimal bottom-fishing point, but there is still potential for upward breakthroughs. The continuous selling pressure from short-term whales and the cautious entry of new capital create a game of chance. If new capital is insufficient to absorb the sell-offs, ETH prices may come under pressure; however, the firm stance of long-term holders suggests that potential adjustments could instead foster the next opportunity window.