To predict the trend of BTC, we need to take SOL as a reference. This is because SOL always pulls back a step ahead of BTC. This time, after reaching the high point of 187, it also started to pull back first, dropping to 152.5, which is the 0.382 position. It paused here for a few days, not breaking below 150, creating a false impression for retail investors to buy the dip. Here, it is actually waiting for BTC to break below 103000. Last night it dropped to 141.5, just right for a pullback to the 0.50 position. It could further pull back about 11 points, around 130.5, which is the 0.618 position, the buying point.

From a purely positional perspective, SOL can be bought near 130. BTC is unlikely to drop below 95000, as 95000 is the 0.618 pullback position. Spot orders can be placed at will; if they don't get filled, it's no big deal. I believe not many people will buy BTC spot above 98,000. BTC is slightly stronger in the market. If SOL pulls back to 0.618, BTC will basically pull back to around 0.50 at 98200. The 0.382 position is 101400, which was broken last night, but historically it tends to strongly rebound. If it doesn't resist 100000, it will quickly lose ground. So, we shouldn't chase short positions; at least wait for a rebound above 102400 before going short. Therefore, the next pullback to around 0.50 at 98200 can temporarily serve as a buying point for contracts.