June 6 Morning Thoughts

On June 5 at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending May 31 reached 247,000, hitting a new high for 2025 (expected 235,000). A weak labor market may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, the OECD projects U.S. inflation to rise to 3.9% by the end of the year, limiting significant short-term rate cuts. If employment continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points in the second half of 2025 (expected in July and September). Future attention should be on non-farm payroll data and the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting. Cryptocurrency prices may rise in the short term due to expectations of rate cuts, but caution is needed regarding the volatility of economic data.

From the market perspective, the daily cryptocurrency price is fluctuating downward, with consecutive bearish candles and lower highs. Yesterday's candlestick rebounded and then fell back, showing a long upper shadow and heavy selling pressure. The hourly chart shows support at 103,000, demonstrating narrow fluctuations at a low level. In terms of technical indicators, the hourly MACD is contracting with weak momentum, and the RSI is around 45, indicating subdued market sentiment; the daily MACD is dominated by bears, and the RSI is below 40, showing weakness. The hourly EMA7, 30, and 120 moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, while the daily EMA7 and 30 are declining, suggesting a long-term bearish trend. In the short term, it remains advisable to look for buying opportunities on retracements.

Bitcoin: Buy at 101,000-101,500 with a target of 103,000-104,000

Ethereum: Buy at 2,380-2,410. Target: 2,450-2,480

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