Why is the Altcoin Season Delayed? Key Signals Reveal the Truth!

In the cryptocurrency market, the "Altcoin Season" has always been a hot topic among players, with many eagerly anticipating the moment when altcoins collectively explode. So, how can we determine if the Altcoin Season is approaching? Today, we share a simple yet practical indicator to help you gain insight into market trends.

Core Indicator: Moving Average Crossover

We can start with the total market cap of altcoins, calculating its 7-day moving average (short-term trend, marked as the red line) and 30-day moving average (long-term trend, marked as the blue line). When the short-term moving average breaks above the long-term moving average, it indicates that the market cap of altcoins is rapidly increasing in the short term, surpassing the long-term average level. This phenomenon is often a leading signal for the initiation of the Altcoin Season, indicating that the market may enter an active period.

Insights on Structural Opportunities

It is important to note that within the altcoin market, the influence of certain high-market-cap coins is significant. Therefore, the occurrence of moving average crossovers does not necessarily mean that all altcoins will rise comprehensively; it is more likely that some coins with higher weights will perform strongly first. Historically, similar signals (for example, the points marked as 1, 2, and 3 in the chart) often correspond to the early stages of a structural Altcoin Season, providing players with a window to capture opportunities.

Current Signal: Not Optimistic

However, recent market data has provided different signals. Observations show that the 7-day moving average has crossed below the 30-day moving average, indicating that the growth rate of the total market cap of altcoins is significantly lower than the long-term average in the short term. This "reverse crossover" suggests that market momentum is weakening, and the conditions for the initiation of the Altcoin Season are not yet mature in the short term.

Summary: Altcoin Season Still Needs to Wait

Current market signals indicate that the long-awaited Altcoin Season may not have arrived yet, and it may even "pass by". Players need to remain patient and closely monitor changes in moving average indicators to grasp the market rhythm. Future opportunities may lie in the next moment when the red line breaks above the blue line!