Special reminder: BTC whales continue to buy in small amounts.
BTC short-term holders are selling off in large amounts.
BTC long-term holders are buying in the largest amounts recently.
Attention! BTC is about to change direction!!! Large-scale movements from long-term and short-term holders on-chain!
BTC long-term holders and short-term holders' positions BTC short-term holders are selling off in large amounts & BTC long-term holders are buying in the largest amounts recently. Combined with the supply situation of BTC on exchanges, a large number of long-term holders are optimistic about the future trend of BTC and have bought a lot of spot from exchanges and then withdrawn it to their wallets!
BTC short-term holders are selling off in large amounts.
BTC long-term holders are buying in the largest amounts recently.
Exchange BTC, ETC inflows and outflows BTC, ETH have been continuously flowing out of exchanges, reaching new lows, but the outflow speed has slowed down.
** BTC, ETH inflow and outflow data interpretation.
BTC inflows and outflows from exchange wallets are core on-chain indicators for the crypto market, directly reflecting the movements of major funds and market sentiment.
Inflow ↑ holders are depositing BTC into exchanges selling pressure expectations increase be cautious of short-term declines.
Outflow ↓ holders are withdrawing BTC from exchanges accumulation/lock-up willingness increases indicating a medium-term bullish outlook.
1. Greed and fear index Today's value: 58 Neutral, up 1 point from yesterday.
**Greed and fear index interpretation.
The behavior in the cryptocurrency market is highly emotional. When the market rises, people tend to be greedy, feeling the fear of missing out; when the market falls, however, they irrationally sell their cryptocurrencies.
By using the fear and greed index, we aim to help users overcome emotional factors and avoid making irrational judgments.
There are two states:
Extreme fear indicates that investors are overly worried, which may be a buying opportunity.
Excessive greed indicates that investors are overly excited, and the market may undergo a correction.
2. Bitcoin's total market share 62.83 slightly increased from yesterday.
**Bitcoin's total market share is a core indicator for measuring Bitcoin's relative influence in the entire cryptocurrency market. This indicator not only reflects Bitcoin's short-term market position but also reveals changes in capital rotation, investor sentiment, and macro trends.
Bitcoin's market share is the 'weather vane' for judging market phases:
Early bull market: Market share rises, funds prioritize allocation to Bitcoin.
Mid to late bull market: Market share decreases, funds rotate to altcoins, triggering 'altcoin season'.
Market thermometer: >60% = Risk aversion dominant; <40% = Altcoin frenzy.
Capital flow chart: Reveals the allocation preferences of institutions and retail investors (Bitcoin → stable, altcoins → high risk, high return).
3. Bitcoin and Ethereum trading pair 0.024579 Ethereum to Bitcoin trading pair has retreated.
**The Bitcoin/Ethereum trading pair is a 'risk thermometer' for the cryptocurrency market:
Ratio rises → Market prefers high-risk assets (signal for the start of altcoin season);
Ratio declines → Funds are seeking safety in Bitcoin (characteristics of bear market or early bull market).
4. ETF inflow and outflow data ETF inflow speed has slowed, maintaining small inflows.
**ETF inflow and outflow data explanation: The inflow and outflow data of Bitcoin ETFs is a core indicator for tracking institutional sentiment, market trends, and capital rotation.
5. On-chain BTC retail, large holder, and institutional buy-sell data statistics Large whales have been continuously flowing in small amounts for several days.
Thanks to @交易庞克 for providing data organization and sharing.
Data explanation: Represents the increase and decrease of on-chain flows for ≤ 1 BTC, 1—10 BTC, 10—100 BTC, and 100+ BTC respectively. This data can reflect the market sentiment of retail investors, large holders, and institutions.
Data explanation: This data reflects the increase and decrease of on-chain flows for ≤ 1 BTC, 1—10 BTC, 10—100 BTC, and 100+ BTC within a week. This data can intuitively reflect the flow trends of BTC for retail investors, large holders, and institutions in the market.
When on-chain data shows an extreme condition, a reversal often occurs (e.g., if large whales with more than 100 BTC buy in large amounts while others are selling, the probability of Bitcoin rising greatly increases, and vice versa for a decrease). It is also necessary to analyze this in conjunction with other on-chain data and technical indicators.
6. MVRV realized market value ratio MVRV > 1.
**MVRV realized market value ratio explanation: The MVRV realized market value ratio is an indicator used to assess the cryptocurrency market (especially Bitcoin). This indicator can help users determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued and identify potential tops and bottoms in market cycles.
MVRV > 1
When the ratio is greater than 1, it indicates that the market price is above the realized price, meaning that most holders are in profit. This could suggest that the market is overheating, especially when MVRV reaches historical highs, which may signal a market top.
MVRV < 1
When the ratio is less than 1, it indicates that the market price is below the realized price, meaning that most holders are in a loss position. This could suggest that the market is undervalued, especially when MVRV reaches historical lows, which may signal a market bottom.
7. Altcoin season index 14 Is it altcoin season: No, continues to weaken.
**Altcoin season index explanation: The altcoin season index is an indicator used to measure the performance of non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies in the cryptocurrency market. It is usually used to determine whether altcoins perform better than Bitcoin over a specific period, helping investors understand market trends and investment opportunities.
8. USD inflow into the cryptocurrency market Continuous net inflow.
9. Net inflow of fiat-supported stablecoins (USD stablecoins with market cap > 100M) net inflow.
The above data only represents a perspective from on-chain data to predict BTC volatility trends and market sentiment, and does not represent any investment advice. Please make careful decisions!
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