Will BTC continue to rise according to this indicator?
James Wynn and retail on X are closely watching the Global M2 Money Supply
The chart above shows a very close correlation between this indicator and the price line of $BTC since the beginning of 2024 with a 100-day lag (the correlation is still visible if adjusted to a 84-day lag)
Why 84-100 days?
"Because it takes time for liquidity to be pumped into the market" - Crypto Twitter says
The common opposing opinion is that this indicator is rising due to the depreciation of the USD
I find this case very similar to PlanB's famous Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model predicting BTC will reach $100k in 2021
Retail is skeptical, $BTC may rise sharply to give many people more confidence despite the indicator and then the S2F ver2 model appears: "continues to be right until it is wrong"
What are your thoughts?